Abnormal temperature surge may accelerate glacial floods risk in northern Pakistan: PMD

Rising temperatures may accelerate glacier melt and increase Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) risk in northern Pakistan, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said on Monday.

The rainfall and snowfall in northern Pakistan remained below normal during the winter season, consistent with the seasonal forecast issued by PMD. Reduced precipitation and persistent clear-sky conditions have resulted in stable atmospheric patterns and significantly elevated temperatures across Gilgit-Baltistan from February 1 to 22.

Daytime (maximum) temperatures were recorded 3-5°C above normal, while nighttime (minimum) temperatures remained 1-3.5°C above the 1981-2010 climatological average. The highest warming has been observed in Gilgit and Bunji, while Chilas and Bunji have shown notable increases in minimum temperatures, reducing overnight refreezing.

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The sustained above normal temperatures are accelerating snow and glacier melt, particularly at mid to lower altitudes.

Reduced nighttime cooling further enhances meltwater runoff into glacial lakes. Rapid melting increases water accumulation in both moraine and glacier dammed lakes, raising the likelihood of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) events in downstream valleys.

The PMD’s outlook for February–April 2026 indicates a high probability of above-normal temperatures over northern Pakistan, including Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir. If this warming trend persists, the Met Office said, the risk of glacier melt acceleration and potential GLOF occurrences may increase in vulnerable areas such as Gilgit, Ghizar, Hunza, Bunji, Chilas and Astore.

The PMD said it continues to closely monitor temperature trends, glacier melt conditions, and hydrometeorological parameters and will issue timely advisories to relevant authorities and communities.