Thailand’s Q4 GDP grows 2.5% on the year, beating forecast
- That was higher than the annual growth of 1.2% in the September quarter, and beat a median forecast of 1.0% growth
BANGKOK: Thailand’s economy grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter of 2025 from a year earlier, boosted by industrial and retail trade, official data showed on Monday, though the agriculture sector slowed.
Gross domestic product grew 2.5% in the October-December quarter from a year earlier, the National Economic and Social Development Council said.
That was higher than the annual growth of 1.2% in the September quarter, and beat a median forecast of 1.0% growth in a Reuters poll.
On a quarterly basis, Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy expanded by a seasonally adjusted 1.9% in the October-December quarter, the highest in four years, compared with the poll forecast of 0.3% growth.
Over the whole of 2025, growth reached 2.4%.
The council also adjusted its 2026 growth outlook to 1.5% to 2.5%, from a previous range of 1.2% to 2.2%.
Lagging regional peers since the pandemic, the Thai economy has faced multiple headwinds, including US tariffs, high household debt, and a strengthening baht.
The council projected that exports, a key driver of Thai growth, would rise 2.0% this year, compared with a 0.3% drop projected earlier.
Consumer confidence rose in January amid hopes that a new government would stimulate the struggling economy.
Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s Bhumjaitai party won the most seats in this month’s general election, and it is now negotiating with smaller parties to form a coalition.
Anutin’s big election victory and the potential formation of a strong coalition government could offer relief to an economy that has faced repeated episodes of political instability, though reviving growth remains a challenge.
“A swift government formation would help speed up the budget so there can be injections into the economy,” the council’s head, Danucha Pichayanan, told a news conference.
Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said last week that the incoming government would continue its economic policies and was preparing the second phase of a consumer subsidy scheme, as pledged during the election campaign.
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