Risk-off pressure keeps Indian rupee knocking on 92 handle, RBI looms

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is expected to remain under strain on Monday amid broad-based risk-off sentiment, with traders wary of pushing the currency beyond the 92-per-dollar handle due to the possibility of central bank intervention.

The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 91.94-91.99 range versus the US dollar, having settled near the all-time low of 91.9825 on Friday.

Indian equities, which were open on Sunday for the budget session, logged their biggest percentage drop on a budget-day trading session in six years, underscoring a bout of local risk aversion.

Separately, volatile trading in precious metals drove a broader risk-off move, pulling down Asian shares and US equity futures, before a busy week for corporate earnings, central bank meetings and major economic data.

In this environment, the rupee should have “comfortably” weakened beyond 92, a currency trader at a bank said.

“The only thing holding it back is RBI defence and the market’s reluctance to test that discomfort zone.

We could still see 92, depending on the pre-open price action,“ the trader added.

The rupee struggled to weaken beyond 92 per dollar last week, with state-run banks consistently offering dollars at around the level, a pattern traders said pointed to intervention on behalf of the central bank.

While the Reserve Bank of India is likely to continue supporting the currency, the rupee’s weakening trend is expected to persist, a senior treasury official at a bank said.

The official pointed out that the budget is unlikely to reverse the recent spate of equity outflows from India and that Indian bonds are likely to face pressure when markets open on Monday.

Overseas investors have sold a record amount of Indian equities, totalling $22.9 billion since 2025, piling pressure on the rupee.