With no new catalysts, India bonds stay flat as traders brace for supply

MUMBAI: Indian government bonds barely moved in thin early trading on Thursday, as the lack of major triggers nudged traders to focus on demand for the upcoming debt sale.

The benchmark 10-year 6.48% 2035 bond yield was at 6.6098% as of 10:05 a.m. IST, after ending at 6.6105% on Wednesday. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

“There is nothing to look forward to for the day, and hence traders will now become active only on the auction day,” a trader with a state-run bank said.

New Delhi will auction 290 billion rupees ($3.2 billion) of 15-year and 40-year government bonds on Friday, at a time when states have announced that they will raise a record 5 trillion rupees through bonds in the January–March quarter.

Bonds have stayed under pressure despite the Reserve Bank of India’s aggressive debt buying.

The RBI bought 500 billion rupees of bonds earlier this week and is set to bid for twice that amount via additional purchases through January 22.

So far this financial year, the RBI has bought bonds worth a record 4.7 trillion rupees, but the purchases have failed to soothe concerns about hefty supply.

Market sentiment has also remained subdued because the RBI has been opting for thinly-traded securities at these purchases, defying expectations for inclusion of a former benchmark and other liquid papers.

Meanwhile, traders eye inclusion of Indian bonds in Bloomberg Aggregate Index, with the announcement due as early as next week.

Goldman Sachs says the inflows could be in the range of $10 billion to $20 billion.