Most Gulf bourses in black on oil, US rate cut bets

Most stock markets in the Gulf ended higher on Wednesday, amid rising crude prices, as investors look to U.S. economic data this week that could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy moves.

Oil prices, a catalyst for Gulf financial markets, climbed more than 1% after Russia said talks with U.S. officials in Moscow failed to reach a compromise on a potential Ukraine peace deal that could have eased sanctions on its oil sector.

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index rose 0.4%, with Etihad Etisalat Company advancing 2.1%, while Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company surged 10% to 93.95 riyals after HSBC lifted its price target to 115 riyals from 107 riyals.

The kingdom approved its state budget for 2026 on Tuesday, forecasting a narrower fiscal deficit of 165 billion riyals ($44 billion), or about 3.3% of gross domestic product, as it shifts spending to priority sectors such as industry and logistics in a push to increase non-oil revenue.

The Qatari index gained 0.5%, with the Qatar Islamic Bank finishing 1.2% higher.

Dubai’s main share index - which traded after a two-session break - advanced 1.2%, with top lender Emirates NBD gaining 3.5%.

In Abu Dhabi, the index was up 0.7%.

Stock markets in the United Arab Emirates resumed trading after a two-day hiatus for its National Day celebrations.

Investors are closely watching upcoming releases, including Wednesday’s November ADP private payrolls report and Friday’s delayed September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

Monetary policy shifts in the U.S. have a significant impact on Gulf markets, where most currencies are pegged to the dollar.

U.S. rate futures are now assigning an 88% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at next week’s meeting, up from 85% a week earlier, CME’s FedWatch Tool shows.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index jumped 1.8%, hitting all-time high, with Commercial International Bank  rising 1.8%.

Egypt’s non-oil private sector recorded its fastest growth in five years in November, driven by sharp increases in output and new orders, a business survey showed on Wednesday.