Finance ministry sees November inflation in Pakistan at 5–6%

Pakistan’s government has projected that inflation reading to remain in the range of 5% to 6% in the outgoing month of November 2025, reporting the “expected inflationary pressure is building up” again in the country.

“Inflation is expected to remain in the range of 5-6% in November, due to pressures on food prices and agriculture output,” the Finance ministry said in its Monthly Economic Update & Outlook November 2025.

“The crop outlook is mixed, adequate input availability and government support measures are expected to stabilise supplies as the Rabi season progresses.”

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation recorded at 6.2% on year-on-year (YoY) basis in October 2025 as compared to 5.6% in the previous month and 7.2% in October 2024, the monthly report said.

On month-on-month (MoM) basis, the inflation reading increased by 1.8% as compared to 2% in the previous month and 1.2 percent in October 2024, it added.

Economy outlook remains positive

On the other hand, “overall, the economy is projected to maintain its positive momentum, supported by continued structural reforms, digital transition, governance improvements, on the back of ongoing efforts toward fiscal discipline and macroeconomic stabilisation,” the report read.

“Pakistan’s economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic, as industrial activity continue to strengthen amid implementation of economic reforms,” it said.

“The current account deficit remains within the expected range, on the back of steady export growth and strong remittance inflows despite the increase in import demand to meet the production requirements.”

Workers emigration on the rise

Pakistani people continue to emigrate abroad in search of jobs there. This trend, however, supported the country receiving increased workers’ remittances that helped keeping current account deficit moderate.

In October 2025, the report read, the Bureau of Emigration & Overseas Employment registered 90,339 workers, a 22.8% increase from 73,545 in September 2025. As a result, the total registrations reached 278,613 during July–October FY26.

Workers’ remittances surged by 9.3% to $13 billion during the first four months of the current fiscal year (July-October FY26).

As of November 14, 2025, foreign exchange reserves stood at $19.7 billion, including $14.6 billion with the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

The current account posted a deficit of $733 million during July-October FY2026, increasing from a deficit of $206 million recorded in the same period of the last year.