Dollar steady, Thanksgiving looms as yen test

SINGAPORE: The dollar was steady and traders wary on Monday as intervention risks swirled around the yen, with the gilt market on edge ahead of a British budget in a holiday-interrupted week where a New Zealand policy meeting is also expected to deliver a rate cut.

A holiday in Tokyo lightened trade in Asia and left the yen drifting lower at 156.71 per dollar in the early morning.

Japan’s currency has been sliding on a combination of its low interest rate and looser fiscal policies, but it bounced from 10-month lows late last week when Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama ramped up verbal warnings of official yen buying.

Traders see intervention looming somewhere between 158 and 162 yen per dollar, with Thanksgiving-thinned trade later in the week a possible window for authorities to step in.

“We do not rule out a move as early as Friday, London/New York hours, ahead of 160 and if it happens the move lower can be sharp especially if liquidity is thin,” said OCBC strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong in a note.

Japan can actively intervene in the currency market to mitigate the negative economic impact of a weak yen, Takuji Aida, a private-sector member of a key government panel, said in a television programme on public broadcaster NHK on Sunday.

Elsewhere the euro was held in check at $1.1506, without much of a boost despite a resurgence in wagers on a U.S. rate cut in December. That followed New York Fed President John Williams saying there is room to lower rates in the near term.

It has made no initial reaction to Ukraine peace plans, with Ukraine and the U.S. saying they had created an updated and refined framework that modifies last week’s 28-point plan.

The dollar index was steady at 100.25 and other majors were held fairly close to recent lows.

Sterling traded at $1.3093 ahead of Wednesday’s budget announcement, where finance minister Rachel Reeves seeks to tread a path between spending to support faltering growth, while showing the market Britain can meet its fiscal targets.

The New Zealand dollar was clinging on at $0.5608, having slid nearly 8% since July on a souring economic outlook.

Markets are all but certain the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, but are on the fence about whether a further reduction will follow next year.

The Australian dollar was at $0.6453, with traders looking ahead to Wednesday’s CPI reading, which will be the first full release of monthly price data. A Reuters poll showed weighted annual CPI is expected to be sticky at 3.6%.

“This type of result could, in our opinion, reinforce the view that the RBA may not cut interest rates again this cycle,” said Peter Dragicevich, Asia-Pacific currency strategist at payments firm Corpay.

Cryptocurrency markets steadied over the weekend, but pressure resumed on bitcoin in the Asia day, pulling it down 2% to $86,250.