A Muslim military alliance?

This is a good time to be an observer. The world is being repurposed but a bad time to be a participant or activist. You could end up being martyred, genocided or M.I.A (missing in action). Most of the action centres around the Middle East, but the tsunami effect encompasses the whole world.

The safest place to be is Malvinas (Falkland Islands). With Margaret Thatcher now retired, no more attacks are expected.

The big recent news is the strategic defence agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. It would be premature to comment. The devil lies in the fine print. But it would be interesting to evaluate the military capabilities of some Muslim countries.

More importantly, do these countries have the “sovereignty to deploy”? About 2 decades ago five Muslim majority countries had the “military muscle” to be counted—Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Iran and Indonesia. Since 2000 some other states have entered this league.

Turkey

The Ottoman Empire. The sick man of Europe. Military coups (1960, 1971, 1980). Latest coup attempt July 2016. But a powerful Islamic state. Real GDP hovers around USD 28,000. Military expenditure is 1.8 percent of GDP (2022) approx USD 30 billion. 445,000 active military & security personnel. Military inventory comprises of domestically produced and western weapon systems. Recent acquisition of Chinese and Russian weapons. Turkey has a robust defence industry capable of producing weapon systems for export and internal use. Turkey has been a member of NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) since 1952 and hosts NATO Land Force Command at Izmir as well as a NATO/US air base at Incirlik.

Egypt

Egypt has been around forever! At least since 3200 BC. The Nile river flood was the most awaited event since 3000 BC. Still is. Egypt’s recent history is interesting—Gamal Abdel Nasser and NAM (Non-Aligned Movement), etc. Followed by military dictators Anwar Sadat, Hosni Mubarak and Abdel Fatah El-Sissi (current). Mohammad Mursi of the Islamic Brotherhood only lasted 2 years: 2013–14. The real per capita income of Egypt is USD 11,800 (2021). The military personnel strength is huge—approx 450,000 active duty personnel and 300,000 central security forces. The EAF inventory is a mix of domestically produced, imported Soviet-era and some modern western weapon systems. The GCC is pumping a lot of investment into Egypt.

Iran

The regime of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was overthrown in 1979; the only government in history to be overthrown for hosting a party. Remember “Persepolis”. Our very own Agha Mohammad Yahya Khan was there. He consumed more champagne than all others combined. Since then the Islamists have hung on. Real GDP per capita is approx USD 13,000. Military expenditure is 2.1 percent of GDP (2022): USD 23 billion. Military & security personnel strength in formation varies. 550-600,000 active military personnel, approx 200,000 Islamic Revolutionary Guards, 15,000 Quds Force. Military equipment—a mix of domestically produced and older foreign equipment of Chinese, Soviet, Russia and USA origins. Some military equipment from North Korea as well.

Pakistan

The Real GDP per capita USD 4,700. Only IMF has the real numbers. Military expenditure is 4 percent of GDP (2022): approx USD 20 billion. The number of military & security service personnel: 630,000. Active daily personnel: approx 150,000 Frontier Corps and Pakistan Rangers. The military inventory includes a mix of equipment from China, France, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, the UK and USA. Pakistan also has a large domestic defence industry.

Indonesia

The country gained independence from the Dutch in 1949. President Soekarno, a founder member of NAM, led an unruly democracy till 1967. Thereafter, Sukarno ruled till 1998. Now democracy prevails. The real GDP per capita is USD 12,000 [2022]. Military Expenditure averages 0.8 percent of GDP: approx USD 15 billion. The number of military & security personnel is 400,000. Active troops. The military inventory is a mix of China, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Russia, S. Korea, the UK and USA.

The above 5 countries have been the backbone of the Islamic military. Since the 1990s some oil rich Muslim countries have acquired notable military equipment. The following are some examples:

Saudi Arabia

The GDP per capita (2022) was USD 47,000. The military expenditure is 7.8 percent of GDP: approx USD 92 billion. The military numbers stand at 225,000. Total Active troops. Another 100,000 in the Saudi Arabian Guard. The inventory consists of mostly modern weapon systems from the USA+ Europe. Saudi Arabia was the world’s largest arms imposter in 2022.

The UAE

The country signed the Peace Agreement (the Abraham Accords) with Israel in Sept 2020. The GDP per capita is approx 67,000 USD (2019). Military expenditure is approx 56 percent of GDP: USD 29 billion. Approx 65,000 military & security personnel. Military inventory consists of modern weapon systems, supplied by the USA, Europe and Russia. These are the big guns. Other Muslim majority countries too have significant military capability.

Note: DATA SOURCE— The CIA World Factbook 2023-2024

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