Findings of the agricultural census

The findings of the Agricultural Census of 2024 have been released recently by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). This was also a digital census. It has come after a gap of 14 years, as the last Agricultural Census was conducted in 2010.

According to the Census, there were 11.7 million private farms in Pakistan in 2024. The corresponding number was 8.3 million in 2010. Therefore, the annual growth rate in the number of farms since 2010 has been 2.5 percent. This is significantly higher than the rate of increase in the number of households in the rural areas of Pakistan of approximately 2 percent. Therefore, contrary to expectations, the rural economy is now more dependent on agriculture.

The increase in total farm area is estimated at only 0.8 percent on average annually. It was estimated at 59.3 million acres in 2024, compared to 52.9 million acres in 2010. Consequently, the average farm size has contracted significantly from 6.4 acres to 5.1 acres. This is a clear indicator of the increased population pressure on farm land.

However, the positive development is the more intensive utilization of farm area, with an increase in the share of cultivated area. The share of cultivated area in farm area has gone up from 80.6 percent to 89 percent. The issue is access to water of the higher cultivated area. The Census reports that the share of barani area is over 9 percent. Therefore, it is likely that some of the additional cultivated area is rainfed and not with access to irrigation.

Turning to the key indicator of the inequality in farm area distribution, the first important magnitude is the share of small farms, with area of up to only 2.5 acres. There has been a very big increase in the share of these small farms in the total number of farms. It has increased from 43.5 percent in 2010 to 60 percent in 2024. Their share in farm area has risen from 8 percent in 2010 to 18 percent in 2024.

Overall, the Gini coefficient, the standard measure of inequality, has been computed of the farm size distribution. It ranges from 0 to 1. A Gini coefficient of more than 0.4 is taken to imply relatively high level of inequality. This is estimated of the farm size distribution at 0.589 in 2024, as compared to 0.626 in 2010. Therefore, there has been an overall decline in the inequality in the farm size distribution in Pakistan. However, inequality still remains high.

However, the big increase in the share of small farms highlights the likelihood of a rise in the incidence of rural poverty. Inclusive of income from crops and livestock, the net income from an acre of cultivated area is estimated at close to 470,000 rupees annually. The average size of small farms, below 1 acre, is 0.6 acres. This implies the equivalent income annually of Rs 282,000, which is below the poverty line in Pakistan of Rs 340,000 per rural household. Overall, this income includes the value of self-consumption of food crop outputs.

The other extreme end of the farm distribution is of very large farmers, with farms above 25 acres in size. The percentage of such farms has declined from 4.1 percent to 1.4 percent, while their share in farm area has fallen from 35 percent to 14 percent. This is clear evidence of a decline in inequality in rural incomes.

However, the distribution of large farms by tenure status reveals the emergence of a new source of inequality. This is the share in large farms above 25 acres of owner-cum-tenant and tenant operated farms. It has declined from 72 percent in 2010 to 69 percent in 2024. This indicates the presence of greater economies of scale in the operation of large farms, due in particular to more mechanization and use of tractors.

Turning to the cropping patterns, it is perhaps somewhat surprising that there is not much variation by farm size. The share of wheat cultivation in cropped area is somewhat U-shaped with respect to farm size. Cash crops like cotton and sugarcane see a rise in shares of cropped area with farm size. The sharpest increase in share of cropped area with farm size is observed in the case of sugarcane.

Perhaps it may come as a positive surprise that there is not a very large variation by farm size of access to irrigation water through canals. 85 percent of the cultivated area in small farms of up to 2.5 acres has access to this mode of irrigation. The corresponding percentage for large farms is not much larger at close to 88 percent. However, the access depends on the location. Large farms are likely to be closer to the head of a canal.

The next important statistic is the growth in livestock population. Here the increase is appreciable between 2010 and 2024. It ranges from a high of 7.8 percent per annum in the case of sheep to 5.3 percent in the number of goats, 5.1 percent in buffaloes and 2.9 percent in cattle. These relatively high growth numbers are consistent with the numbers reported by the PBS in the GDP estimates of increase in the value-added at constant prices in the livestock sector of 3.3 percent between 2009-10 and 2023-24. This is significantly higher than the growth rate in the crop sector of 2.4 percent. Medium-sized farms are more likely to be allocating a higher share of cultivated area to fodder cultivation.

The Agricultural Census of 2024 has quantified some key magnitudes on the crop and livestock sectors of Pakistan. However, some of the estimates relating to the use of inputs, type of labor employed, the level of trading in agricultural land, debt per household, etc., have not yet been released. We look forward to these estimates by farm size by the PBS as was done after the 2010 Census.

Overall, the primary concern is the near doubling of the number of small farmers, who are likely to either below or close to the poverty line. They will need extraordinary support especially after the floods. On the positive side, inequality in farm size distribution has declined, farm area has increased significantly, and there has been a big rise in the livestock population.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025