Foreign borrowing

EDITORIAL: Economic Affairs Division’s data indicates that Pakistan borrowed a total of 2.667 billion dollars from multiple sources July-November 2024, excluding the 1.03 billion dollar tranche released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the ongoing 7 billion dollar 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme.

The borrowed amount is 38 percent less than what was borrowed in the comparable period of last year as per revised estimates - 4.285 billion dollars.

Three disturbing observations need to be highlighted. First, the revised estimates of external receipts for last year (to enable the government to pay off the interest on past loans, the principal as and when due, and for budget support) in rupee terms was 632,465 million rupees lower than what has been budgeted for the current year or, in other words, reliance has not been contained.

Secondly, only 70 percent of what was budgeted for last year, 7169.136 billion rupees was actually realised as indicated by the revised estimates for last year.

This in turn indicated that the government over-estimated its capacity to borrow externally in the budget, which was severely compromised due to failure to borrow the budgeted amount from the commercial banking sector abroad and through issuance of debt equity (sukuk/Eurobonds) as the three major international rating agencies — Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s and Fitch — rated Pakistan in the high risk of default category in spite of the then ongoing nine-month 3 billion dollar Stand-By Arrangement by the IMF.

And finally, irrespective of rhetorical claims to the contrary, the recent upgrade in Pakistan’s rating by two of the three agencies still places the country within the range of high risk of default category, thereby making it extremely expensive to initiate borrowing from commercial banking sector abroad as well through issuing debt equity that has been budgeted at around 6 billion dollars in the current year.

If the IMF disbursement of a billion dollars is added as external receipts then the country has received 3.697 billion dollars out of the total 20.4 billion dollars budgeted for the year and has therefore received only 18 percent of the total budgeted in the first five months of the year.

Time deposits of 9 billion dollars, defined as parking dollars in the country’s State Bank at a minimal interest rate by friendly countries, was budgeted; however while Saudi Arabia has extended a three billion dollar deposit early December (understandably not included in the five-month data released by EAD) there is a shortfall of two billion dollars as the government had budgeted five billion dollars under this head from the Kingdom, while the 4 billion dollar SAFE deposits from China have not yet been disbursed.

Therefore, if one includes the 3 billion dollar time deposits from Saudi Arabia total inflows to date are of 6.607 billion dollars, which is 32 percent of the total budgeted during the first five months and three weeks of the current fiscal year.

While the civilian and military stakeholders have been visibly engaging in diplomacy to generate the budgeted external receipts since earlier this year yet it is clearly a challenge in spite of the fact that the country is on a Fund programme.

The slack in inflows is from friendly countries delaying pledged time deposits and are, no doubt, seeking assurances that may well be economic and security-related, which clearly the government has not been able to meet so far.

While the government has little, if any, flexibility in deferring repayment of interest on past loans and payment of principal if due yet the government does have leverage to reduce its expenditure to eliminate the need for budget support from external sources.

It is therefore imperative for the government to slash its budgeted expenditure to eliminate the need for support from external sources and given that data shows that current expenditure was raised by 21 percent in the first three months of the current year compared to the year before one would hope that it desists from raising current expenditure any further.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024