LAHORE: Due to satisfactory rainfall reported in most of the country’s plains, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has termed the soil moisture condition satisfactory for most standing seasonal crops like cotton, peanuts, sugarcane, seasonal vegetables, and orchards.
The PMD issues monthly and seasonal forecasts using global climate models at the end of each month. As a result, a single model and a single data set are not considered reliable for prediction and forecasting for a more extended period. Therefore, models developed by different institutes and different data sets are being used for accuracy, along with different boundary conditions for each model output. Currently, 13 recommended models are adopted to obtain multi-model ensembles for seasonal predictions.
According to the monthly situation, above-normal precipitation is likely over most parts of the country, particularly in Punjab and Sindh. Meanwhile, average rainfall is expected in Gilgit Baltistan, northern parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Azad Kashmir during August 2024.
During September, above-normal precipitation is likely over most parts of the country, particularly in Sindh and Punjab whereas normal rainfall is expected in Gilgit Baltistan and adjoining areas of Azad Kashmir and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
During October, mostly near normal precipitation is likely over most parts of the country particularly in northeastern locations of Punjab and southeastern parts of Sindh Province. However, normal to slightly below normal rainfall is expected in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit Baltistan and adjoining areas of Azad Kashmir.
According to the PMD, nearly normal to above-normal precipitation is likely in most parts of the country during the next three months, particularly over Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan, lower parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Kashmir. During the monsoon season, strong winds/thunderstorms are expected in particular areas. Accordingly, the soil moisture conditions will remain satisfactory in these regions. It has been advised that irrigation and spray-related activities for cotton, rice, sugarcane, peanut, and gram crops may be scheduled following the expected weather conditions. As a result of the expected heavy rains in most parts of Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and northern & southern parts of Balochistan, weed growth and pet attacks are expected to increase further during August.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2024
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