India fears Taliban fallout in IIOJK

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi set out his Taliban worries to world leaders this week, Indian forces staged raids and battled Kashmir freedom fighters who he fears could be emboldened by the group’s victory in Afghanistan.

Shootings of civilians as well as raids by Indian security forces across the India-Pakistan ceasefire line have all increased in the Muslim-majority region since the Taliban overran Kabul on August 15.

India has not openly blamed the Taliban takeover for the uptick in violence, but it has intensified patrols as well.

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Modi told a G20 summit in Rome earlier this week that international efforts were needed to make sure Afghanistan does not become a safe haven for "radicalisation and terrorism".

He also raised India's concerns with US President Joe Biden.

In September, he told the UN General Assembly that no country must be allowed to use Afghanistan "as a tool for its own selfish interests".

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India was a backer of the Soviet-puppet government in Kabul that was overthrown by Mujahideen forces in 1992. In 2001 it helped the US-led forces that toppled the Taliban. And it was a major donor to the government that the group crushed in August.

Afghan militants fought alongside Kashmir fighters in the 1980s and 1990s. About 20 Afghan "guest Mujahideen" were killed and 10 were captured, according to a former Kashmiri fighter.

India worries that weapons and fighters could again reach the region.

"What we can say and learn from the past is that when the previous Taliban regime was in power, that time definitely we had foreign terrorists of Afghan origin," said India's military chief of staff General M.M. Naravane.

"So there are reasons to believe that the same thing might happen once again."

'Oxygen to our movement'

Protests are virtually impossible in Illegally Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) because of restrictions imposed by Delhi since 2019.

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But some in Kashmir have quietly welcomed the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan as a victory against the odds that they too can aspire to one day.

"If they can defeat the world's largest military power, we see a possibility that we too can win our freedom," one businessman in the main Kashmir city of Occupied Srinagar told AFP, declining to be named.

A former Kashmir freedom fighter who trained in Afghanistan in the 1990s and fought alongside Afghan Mujahideen in Kashmir added: "The Taliban victory has already supplied oxygen to our movement."

Given India's security clampdown on Kashmir, Naravane and other military chiefs are hopeful that Delhi can cope with any surge.

But speaking on condition of anonymity, a senior security official in Kashmir said "there is some panic" inside the security establishment.

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Michael Kugelman, a South Asia specialist at the Wilson Centre in Washington, said Afghanistan's new rulers could inspire "stepped up unrest" in IIOJK.

Taliban officials have said they want to maintain trade and other ties with India, meaning that some kind of contact will have to be maintained.

"The Taliban itself won't agitate for unrest, but those it is aligned with likely will do so," he said. Mosharraf Zaidi, a columnist and security analyst in Pakistan, said he saw no reason the Taliban would want to "deliberately agitate the Indian authorities".

Their victory, he believes, is more important for the signal it sends to "young Kashmiri boys and girls watching the images from Afghanistan".