IGC cuts forecast for 2020/21 global grains production

LONDON: The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday cut its forecast for global grains production in 2020/21 to a still record 2.21 billion tonnes, and also trimmed its projection for consumption during the season.

In its monthly update, the inter-governmental body cut its grains production forecast by 9 million tonnes with a cut of 13 million tonnes for corn (maize) partially offset by an upward revision in the outlook for wheat.

Global consumption of grains in 2020/21 was lowered by 5 million tonnes to 2.216 billion tonnes but remained above the prior season's 2.192 billion.

"Although the COVID pandemic continues to dampen demand in some sectors, particularly for fuel ethanol and brewing, overall consumption is predicted to grow for a fifth successive year," the IGC said.

Grain stocks were seen dipping at a five-year low of 611 million tonnes.

"The decline is entirely because of a drop in maize inventories, to an eight-year low, led by contractions in the US, China and the EU," the IGC said.

"In contrast, wheat stocks could climb to a new high."

The IGC cut its global corn production forecast by 13 million tonnes to 1.133 billion tonnes although it remained slightly up on the prior season's 1.124 billion tonne crop.

Production in the United States, by far the world's top grower of the crop, was cut to 360.3 million tonnes from a prior projection of 368.5 million.

Brazil's corn crop was cut seen at 105.8 million tonnes in 2020/21, down from a previous projection of 112.5 million but still above the prior season's 102.5 million.

Corn production in Argentina in 2020/21 was downwardly revised to 52 million tonnes from 54.3 million previously.

The IGC raised its forecast for 2020/21 world wheat production by 3 million tonnes to 768 million tonnes with estimates for Australia, Canada and Russia all lifted.

A first projection of world wheat supply and demand in 2021/22 pointed to record production and, despite higher consumption, a further build-up of global stocks, the IGC added.