UK GAS-Prices fall on oversupply

LONDON: British wholesale gas prices dropped on Thursday morning, pressured by over-supplied system and expectations of higher gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries.

The day-ahead contract fell by 0.60 pence to 31.90 pence per therm by 0846 GMT.

The within-day contract fell by 0.32 p to 32.23 p/therm.

The UK gas system was 11.8 million cubic metres (mcm) over-supplied, with demand forecast at 182.8 mcm and supply at 194.6 mcm, National Grid data showed.

Gas-for-power demand was 6 mcm lower than previously forecast and is expected to drop to 41 mcm on Friday from 59 mcm on Thursday, Refinitiv data showed.

Peak wind generation is forecast to rise to 12.7 gigawatts (GW) on Friday from 8.3 GW on Thursday, Elexon data showed, with stronger wind tending to reduce demand for gas in power generation.

But colder temperatures resulted in local distribution zone (LDZ) demand rising to 105 mcm on Thursday, 24 mcm higher than predicted earlier.

It is expected to keep growing on Friday due to lower temperatures.

On the supply side, flows from Norway fell by 12 mcm on Thursday compared to Wednesday, Gassco data showed.

Expectations of a rise in flows from Norway after the end of current maintenance works and an increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries towards the end of next month was also putting pressure on prices, a gas trader said.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) sendout is expected to rise by 7 mcm on Thursday, with the British Sapphire tanker expected at the Isle of Grain terminal on Oct. 7.

UK October contract was 0.30 p lower at 31.85 p/therm.

The October gas price at the Dutch TTF hub was down by 0.21 euro at 11.73 euros per megawatt hour.

The benchmark Dec-20 EU carbon contract rose by 0.15 euro to 26.65 euros a tonne.