10-hour loadshedding likely from 31st December

MUSHTAQ GHUMMAN

ISLAMABAD: The country is bracing for power load shedding up to 10 hours from December 31, 2011, due to annual canals closure scheduled to commence from December 26 and reduction in gas supply, sources told Business Recorder.

“Water releases from Mangla reservoir will be reduced to 8,000 cusecs, from 30,000 cusecs available these days, whereas 10,000 cusecs will be released from Tarbela reservoir, against 35,000 cusecs available at present,” sources added.

They said that hydel power generation would shrink by up to 1500 mw due to reduction in water releases.

Rana Khalid, spokesman of Indus River System Authority (Irsa), told Business Recorder that the Authority has already conveyed its plan to the Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda).

The Finance Ministry has expressed inability to arrange funds to cover more than one month’s import of furnace oil, critical for power generation during gas curtailment period, sources added.

They said that Minister for Water and Power Naveed Qamar is trying his best, along with the Petroleum and Natural Resources Minister Dr Asim Hussain to keep the upcoming load shedding to a minimum level but they are unlikely to achieve their goal due to the country’s dismal financial situation.

Sources said the ECC had decided that: (a) the fertilizer plants will be supplied 90 mmcfd gas during the month to enable them to operate two fertilizer plants at a time; and (b) 76 mmcfd will be supplied to four independent power producers (IPPs) Orient, Saif, Saphhir and Hallmore, subject to availability.

Subsequently, in pursuance of Prime Minister’s directions given during briefing on fertilizer on November 15, 2011, a meeting headed by Petroleum Minister decided to allocate 181 mmcgd gas to fertilizer plants on SNGPL system through curtailment of gas supply to power sector i.e. IPPs. This decision will remain effective till March 2012.

Though the Finance Ministry has promised at the highest level that it would arrange funds for import of furnace oil for power sector to minimise load shedding, yet nothing is being done with regard to gas, they added.

The issue of inter-circular debt is also yet to be resolved.

“The Ministry of Water and Power and Ministry of Petroleum have doubts about the ability of the Finance Ministry to deal with the gigantic inter-circular debt of about Rs 300 billion,” said an official.

Government circles expressed concern that the entire country would come out on the streets in protest due to shortage of gas, especially when public transport cost would rise as and when wagons begin to charge more.

Natural gas has a dominant role in the country’s primary energy mix with a contribution of about 48 percent.

Projected demand/supply position of natural gas is as follows: in 2011-12 supply is 4,172 mmcfd against demand of 5,777 mmcfd, showing a shortfall of 1,605 mmcfd.

In 2012-13, supply will be around 4,372 mmcfd whereas demand will be 5,995 mmcfd indicating shortfall of 1,622 mmcfd.

In 2013-14, shortfall will be 1,880 mmcfd, followed by 2,495 mmcfd in 2014-15, 3,038 mmcfd in 2015-16, 3,542 mmcfd in 2016-17, 4,000 mmcfd in 2017-18, 4,424 mmcfd in 2018-19, 4,799 mmcfd in 2019-20 and 5,247 mmcfd in 2020-21.

Sources said that one of the refineries has already conveyed to the government that it would not supply petroleum products to PSO because of non-payment of its outstanding amount.