Spot gold to dip to $1,417/oz in three month

SINGAPORE: Spot gold is expected to fall to $1,417 per ounce over the next three months, as a medium-term downtrend that started at the Sept. 6 high of $1,920.30 will continue.

The trend has adopted an "A-B-C" corrective wave mode, with the wave "C" advancing towards the 100 percent Fibonacci projection level at $1,417.

The downside may not be limited to $1,417, as the wave "C" could be strong enough to travel far beyond this 100 percent projection level, towards $1,269, the 138.2 percent level.

The metal slowed its fall after briefly piercing into a support zone of $$1,534.49-$1,564, formed by the Sept. 26 low and a 61.8 percent Fibonacci projection level.

Strategically, a dip below $1,534 will immediate open the way to $1,417.

Resistance is at $1,640, a rise to which will indicate gold may consolidate further in a triangle, with a good chance to edge up to $1,700 first and fall to $1,564 again thereafter.

No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.

Copyright Reuters, 2011