WASHINGTON: As the last American soldiers leave Iraq, the US State Department assumes the reins of a complex and risky operation, the success or failure of which could determine whether the costly nine-year US engagement with the country finally bears fruit.
US diplomats, shielded by thousands of security contractors, will seek to monitor Iraq's fragile political evolution and push ahead with civilian aid programs designed to demonstrate the benefits of US friendship.
Their aim is to secure an alliance with a nascent democracy neighbouring Iran that, as a key oil producer, has seen its strategic importance to Washington increase sharply amid the political turmoil engulfing the Middle East.
But analysts say that, without US military protection, they may end up trapped in fortified diplomatic bunkers while bureaucrats at home struggle with the logistics of organizing and securing one of the biggest US diplomatic endeavours ever undertaken.
"This is something clearly that the State Department has never done before," said Patrick Kennedy, who oversees the huge transition portfolio as the undersecretary of state for management.
"We have excellent people at the State Department with management, acquisitions, logistical, security, communications and medical skills," Kennedy said. "We are ready."
Iraq analysts are less certain, pointing to the recent bomb blast within Baghdad's heavily-secured Green Zone as a sign of the perils ahead for the US civilian force charged with winning the peace after Iraq's long and costly conflict.
"I think there is a lot of very serious concern about the department's ability to take the lead on all of this given the cuts it has faced over the years and how difficult it has been for them to operate in semi-war zones," said Brian Katulis, a security expert at the Centre for American Progress.
The United States and Iraq had long sought to craft a deal that could have kept thousands of US troops in the country as military trainers. But those talks collapsed in October, forcing the State Department to go forward alone.
A handful of US military personnel will remain in the country, working with the embassy to help with arms sales and training for Iraqi forces.
Talks could resume next year on whether more US troops can return for future training missions.
In the meantime, US officials say there will be roughly 16,000 people involved in the American diplomatic effort in Iraq.
About 2,000 will be diplomats and federal workers. The remaining 14,000 will be contractors roughly half involved with security while the rest will be doing everything from keeping the kitchens running to managing the motor pool.
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