The Chinese yuan will rise 4 percent against the dollar in the coming 12 months, making it the strongest performer among the BRIC country currencies, according to the latest Reuters poll. As the Chinese economy expands with rising foreign exchange reserves, the yuan, also known as the renminbi, is set to extend an uninterrupted rise since it was de-pegged from the doll ar just over a year ago.
A poll of 36 strategists and analysts, taken mostly before the People's Bank of China (PBOC) raised interest rates for the third time this year on Wednesday, showed the yuan trading at 6.40 in three months, 6.30 in six and 6.20 in 12 months. That compares with 6.45, 6.38, and 6.24 in the previous quarterly BRIC FX poll.
BRIC countries have emerged as important players in the global economy, providing a ballast when developed economies plunged in the wake of the global financial crisis. But that prominence has attracted a flood of investment from abroad in recent years, making national currencies expensive and threatening export markets.
China's central bank is set to raise rates once more this year, according to a snap Reuters poll on Thursday. The Brazilian real has been the hottest currency of the four in recent months, having jumped more than 6 percent since the beginning of the year to reach a 12-year high of 1.552 per dollar on July 4.
The poll found the partially convertible rupee would rise by around 1.0 percent against the dollar in the coming year, helped by strong foreign fund inflows into the domestic share market.
The Indian rupee is seen trading at 44.50 against the dollar in one month, 45 in three and 44 in 12 months. These medians are almost unchanged from a poll taken three months ago.
The Russian rouble is expected to appreciate slightly against the dollar in the near term before returning to present levels of around 28.2 this time next year. Against the euro, the rouble is set to rise by more than 2 percent in the next 12 months to 39.22.
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