BRIDGE NOTES: Timing to perfection

Of all dummy plays, it is said that the no trump contracts are often the more difficult to execute, the simple reason being that in no trump contracts, the defender on the opening lead can beat you to the race in the establishment of a particular suit to run especially if he holds a length in it.
It then becomes a deadly race with the declarer trying to establish his suits and winners with the defenders thwarting him in his endeavour by hold up play, deadly switch overs or pegging on in their original suit to take out declarer's early checks. In the end in this play of cat and mouse, it is the final comprehension of judgement as to how likely the suits shall behave in the context. The opening lead gives the declarer the judgment to choose his best option of play.
Sometimes it is a difficult choice when there are lack of entries between the hands and this, and this above all makes the NT contract a difficult one to play. At times, in an effort to establish winners, players tend to lose sight of the possible unexpected loser, that can crop up to upset the cart. A good declarer has to keep a fine balance and play for maximum odds. Not every hand can be a fool proof hand in dummy play. But with the odds percentage theory and the hopefully favourable lie of the cards, a good declarer can roll home.
Let us take our illustration for today of a 3NT contract bid as under: West lead a low spade. What are your chances to make 3NT placing you in the south seat with the following NS-hands? One look at the dummy and you know that if you can muster 3 club tricks, then you are home with the 9 tricks. This is not a too difficult a hand in reality. But it does pose a few problems in the timing of the play.
Well how do you tackle the club suit? If the honours are split 2 to 3, you can muster up 4 tricks in clubs. Of course if QJ of clubs sit 4 times above the AK, there is no hope.
But what about the best chances for the 3NT to make - hoping north has either JX or QX in clubs. If you play a club to the 9 or 10 and east winning switches to a heart, then you are banking solely on the club honour to fall under one top club so that you can get back to hand with 3C to cash the spade winners.
But what about some good defence to beat you at your game plan by getting dummy's middle club win. Now you can make 5 clubs no doubt but will be restricted to 8 tricks with 2 hearts and a spade. Again if north had played a club honour to the first round won in dummy, and you try the 10 clubs, which is again allowed to hold denying you access to the hand with 8C entry, you will be restricted to 8 tricks.
Do you now see the very clear and obvious line of play that gives you the maximum chance of making the 3NT contract. Yes - you must cash the second spade first, for that extra trick which will now cater to your tailor made 9 tricks with 4 in clubs, 2 in hearts, and 3 in spades, with 8C being your entry. In case that is denied by the defence at the peril of their club winner allowing you all 5 clubs tricks, you are still home with 2 spades and 2 hearts. Bridge is all about timing your play to perfection.

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West          North   East   South

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-               1C      P       1D

-               2D      P       3C

P               3H

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ALL PASS         P     3NT

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 North                South

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     2                  AKQ

   AK3                  983

  J432                10765

AK1095                  842

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