Rice and soyabean growing areas of southern and central India could receive above-normal to normal monsoon rains in 2011, sources attending a global weather meeting said on Friday, but cane and corn growing areas could see below-normal rainfall.
The monsoon is crucial for Asia's third-largest economy and a bad season can force the country into the international markets as a foodstuffs buyer, pushing up global prices. Good rains can boost its exports, helping governments throughout Asia to battle food inflation.
India's government, which is struggling with high food inflation and a massive subsidy bill for fuel, grains and fertilisers, would hope for some price relief from a good monsoon. Bad rainfall also results in political pressure on the government, as farmers demand higher rates for their produce and ask bureaucrats to waive loan repayment and electricity charges, impacting public finances.
Sources attending the South Asian Outlook Forum, which should issue its agenda-setting consensus forecast for this year's monsoon later on Friday, said the June-September monsoon rains in India's rice growing southern regions could be above-normal.
The forecast for central India, where soyabean is a major crop, was normal,while rainfall could be below-normal in eastern and western India, they said. India will give its first official forecast for this year's monsoon on April 19. A normal monsoon means the country receives rainfall between 96-104 percent of a 50-year average of 89 centimetres during the four-month rainy season, according to the India's weather office classification. The sources also said Indonesia and Thailand are expected to witness normal rains in 2011, while Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan could see below-normal rainfall. A good monsoon was seen over Sri Lanka, they said.
Comments
Comments are closed for this article.