Late rain damage means Brazil's 2011 soyabean harvest may fall to 69-70 million tonnes from 70-71 million tonnes forecasted last week and the crop might even fall below the 68.6 million tonnes in 2010, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
In February Oil World said Brazil's 2011 soyabean crop could reach 72 million tonnes but repeated rain has damaged the harvest in the world's second largest soyabean exporting country. Oil World on Mar. 15 cut its estimate to 70-71 million tonnes.
"Total soyabean crop damage is estimated anywhere between 1.3 and 2.0 million tonnes," Oil World said. "While a record crop was still standing in the fields at the end of February, we now believe that actual soyabean production will turn out between 69 and 70 million tonnes compared with earlier estimates of 71-72 million tonnes."
"Some estimates even suggest that the final crop will be close to or slightly below last year's," it said. It is still unclear how much damage has occurred after the heavy rain and more rain is expecting in the coming week, it said.
Quality damage is also a major concern with Brazilian new crop soyabeans because of the usually high moisture content while the rain has also disrupted inland transport and port work, it said. "Additional delays in Brazilian exports of soyabeans and products will shift business to US origin," it said.
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