SYDNEY: Australia's trade surplus narrowed by more than expected in October as imports outpaced a flat export performance, and further slippage looms as Europe's crisis hits trade finance while China's red-hot growth cools.
Monday's data showed a surplus on goods and services of A$1.6 billion ($1.63 billion) in October, down from A$2.25 billion in September and short of market expectations.
Imports rose 2.4 percent in the month while exports dipped 0.2 percent, though much of the difference was due to swings in gold shipments which are always an erratic item.
Yet, the surplus for the 10 months to October was still a healthy A$16.5 billion, a tide of cash that is underpinning investment in the booming mining industry.
"It tends to get overlooked but that is a lot of money flowing into the economy every month, pumping up incomes and giving resource companies the wealth to spend heavily," said Michael Workman, a senior economist at Commonwealth Bank.
"It's also a bulwark against Europe, which is now forecasting almost no growth at all next year," he added.
Europe's crisis was front and centre last week when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates by a quarter point to 4.25 percent, the second easing in as many months.
Explaining the cut, the RBA said trade across Asia had begun to feel the drag from Europe, while firms and banks were finding it harder to get financing.
"This, together with precautionary behaviour by firms and households, means that the likelihood of a further material slowing in global growth has increased," warned RBA Governor Glenn Stevens on announcing the rate cut.
With the crisis in Europe showing little sign of abating, markets are wagering the central bank will have to ease policy further next year, perhaps considerably.
Interbank futures are fully priced for a cut to 4.0 percent at the RBA's next policy meeting in February and imply rates could be approaching 3 percent by mid-year.
Overnight indexed swaps are not quite so aggressive and imply the cash rate could trough around 3.5 percent late next year, an outlook most economists tend to favour.
Even the chance of such an easing should offer support to the struggling housing market. Already, the drop of 50 basis points in mortgage rates will have cut around A$1,200 a year from payments on the average mortgage, making Australia's housing a little less expensive.
Government data out Monday showed the number of home loans approved rose 0.7 percent in October, the seventh straight month of gains, though loans for construction remain subdued.
COUNTING ON CHINA
The weakness in housing is not necessarily a bad thing overall since it is making room for resource investment to enjoy a once-in-a-century boom without stoking inflation.
Deloitte Access Investment Monitor estimates a record 935 investment projects are planned or under way worth $894 billion, equal to 69 percent of Australia's A$1.3 trillion in annual economic output.
Of these, 14 are multi-year projects worth more than A$10 billion, and five over A$30 billion, making them relatively resilient to short-term swings in global growth. All this spending is set to greatly boost export volumes of iron ore, coal and liquefied natural gas, where the country is on course to be the second-largest exporter of LNG by 2015.
Earlier Monday, Chinese oil major Sinopec signed a deal with Australia's Origin to supply LNG out to 2035. Japan has also stepped up its demand as a replacement for nuclear power.
The recent economic cooling in China, Australia's single largest export market, is clearly a risk to trade though the impact to date has been surprisingly limited.
Figures out over the weekend showed growth in China's exports slowed in November, yet domestic demand for commodities remained strong. As a result, imports from Australia were up almost 37 percent on November last year giving China a trade deficit of $4.9 billion with Australia.
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