SINGAPORE: Oil prices fell on Thursday as the prospects for supply improved while the economic outlook darkened, but analysts said they still expect prices to rise in the second half of the year.
Brent crude futures were trading at $50.19 per barrel at 0655 GMT, down 42 cents, or 0.83 percent, from their last settlement. U.S. crude was down 37 cents, or 0.74 percent, at $49.51 a barrel.
The lower prices were a result of a higher supply outlook as well as concern over a slowing economy, compounded by Britain's vote to leave the European Union.
"With a ceasefire in Nigeria and Canadian wildfires (receding) oil prices may come under pressure," ANZ bank said.
"The vote to exit adds further to uncertainty in the global economy."
In Asia's No.2 economy, Japan, industrial output slid in May at the fastest rate in three months to its lowest level since June 2013, in the latest sign that Asian growth is stalling.
On the supply side, fears of sharp production cuts from a looming strike by Norway's oil sector eased as output from the North Sea's biggest producer would only fall by about 7 percent in case of a walk-out, according to Norway's Petroleum Directorate.
In Nigeria, output has recovered by 200,000-300,000 barrels per day (bpd) since mid-June after attacks on oil infrastructure knocked out some 600,000 barrels of daily oil production to around 1.25 million bpd, down from 2 million bpd at the beginning of the year.
"The government (is) optimistically aiming for a return to normal production by end-July," Goldman Sachs said.
STRONGER SECOND HALF
But with markets overall tightening this year, Brent has risen by over a third since the beginning of January, and by around 25 percent in the second quarter. U.S. crude prices are also up by more than a third this year.
Analysts said oil prices would rise in the second half of 2016, which kicks off on Friday, as supply and demand fall into balance, ending a glut that pulled prices down by 70 percent between 2014 and early-2016.
"Crude oil prices... will likely rise higher toward marginal cost, as decline rates and field shut-ins cause a larger-than-expected supply deficit by year-end," said analysts at AB Bernstein, adding they expected prices to rise to $60-$70 per barrel.
U.S. crude stockpiles fell 4.1 million barrels in the week to June 24, the sixth consecutive week of drawdowns, to 526.6 million barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
U.S. crude production was at 8.62 million bpd, down from a peak of over 9.6 million bpd last year.
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