LME copper steady, US data supports

SHANGHAI: LME copper was steady on Thursday as encouraging US durable goods data and a rise in equities supported sentiment, but investors were cautious as they looked for direction from the health of the global economy.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.1 percent to $8,885 a tonne by 0420 GMT, after rising 0.3 percent in the last session.

The most-active November copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.4 percent to 66,750 yuan per tonne by its midday close, after falling 0.3 percent in the last session.

"LME copper prices haven't changed much since after Aug. 11., and pivot at around $8,800. The copper market is still waiting for price direction from the financial markets. Without that, it'll be hard to see a breakthrough from this range," said Standard Chartered Bank analyst Judy Zhu.

LME copper has been trading within a range of $8,700 and $9,019.25 since Aug. 12.

Recent US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) traders commitment reports showed that speculators are adopting a balanced strategy on copper futures, Zhu added.

Meanwhile, some good news came out of the United States with new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods rising in July, offering hope the ailing economy could dodge a second recession even though a gauge of business spending fell.

A sweeping US budget deal has brightened the country's fiscal outlook but its gains could evaporate if Congress extends tax breaks in coming years, nonpartisan congressional forecasters said on Wednesday

Looking forward, market players are divided on copper's longer term outlook.

The world's top copper miner, Chile's Codelco, said on Wednesday it expects the price of copper to remain "relatively high" in the medium and long term.

But the price of the metal will likely be volatile until the end of the year on fears the global economy is sliding back into recession, CEO Diego Hernandez said in Lima.

Citigroup believed that copper was "unlikely to set fresh highs over the next year".

"We believe copper will trade in a $7,500-$9,250 tonne range over the next year, experiencing bouts of weakness as sovereign debt concerns flare and signs emerge of an economic slowdown," it said in a note on Thursday.

Copyright Reuters, 2011