LONDON: The Australian and New Zealand dollars were the main movers among major currencies on Thursday, pushed in opposite directions by contrasting signals on the health of two struggling economies.
Two days of testimony from US Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen have done little to move on the debate over when US interest rates will rise, although if anything expectations have been prodded back to later in the second half of this year.
The Aussie fell as much as half a percent against the dollar, the euro and yen before recovering some poise early in Europe, after unexpectedly weak business investment numbers in an economy struggling for growth.
The kiwi dollar by contrast gained 0.4 percent against both the dollar and yen after data showed a surprise surplus on trade.
"In Australia people knew the mining numbers would be weak but were expecting construction investment to make up for that. When it didn't we saw the reaction on the (Aussie) dollar," said Adam Myers, European head of FX strategy at Credit Agricole in London.
The Aussie recovered quickly, however, and Myers said that forward interest rates had not moved to price in any more likelihood of a cut in borrowing costs by the Reserve Bank to follow the reduction at its meeting earlier this month.
"They've done one, they will not do another immediately, it will be wait and see for a little bit, then they'll go again," said Myers. "So the market had got a bit ahead of itself."
The dollar was bang in the middle of ranges it has held for respectively four weeks and three months against the euro and yen, frustrating the bulk of investors who positioning data shows are betting on further gains for the greenback.
"Janet Yellen has done a fair bit in recent days both to help stop the dollar's advance and to suck volatility out of the FX market," said Kit Juckes, a strategist with French bank Societe Generale in London.
The next obvious cue is US consumer prices data due at 1330 GMT. The euro was marginally lower at $1.1353. The dollar inched down to 118.73 yen.
"If we get a surprise on CPI, if the core is lower for example, then the euro is going to go higher," said Myers.
"There are a lot of people who have been short (of euros) for a while and are just going 'come on, come on'. A move higher on the euro and you will see more of them close out.
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