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Markets

China implied oil demand up 3pc on refinery runs

Published Updated

imageBEIJING: China's implied oil demand in November gained around 3 percent from October to the strongest in two months, as refinery runs in the world's top energy consumer hit the second-highest level of on record.

China consumed roughly 10.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil last month, according to Reuters calculations based on preliminary government data, the third straight month to break 10 million and up about 3.3 percent versus a year earlier.

Demand from China, which is being supported by increased refining capacity, could help provide some support to crude prices that have plunged more than 40 percent so far this year due to ample supply and slower global economic growth.

Implied oil demand, which Reuters calculates by combining official figures for refinery throughput and net imports of refined product, does not account for changes in inventories.

Relative changes in the commercial reserves will be released later this month. President Xi Jinping recently pledged to start releasing data on the strategic reserves.

China's growing demand has been driven, in part, by a burgeoning car culture. Chinese regulators have cut the price of fuel at the pump already eight times since July, which could further boost gasoline consumption. But diesel consumption is expected to drop this year or stay flat amid weak construction and mining activity.

The broader economy has losing momentum and data on Friday showed factory output China grew at a smaller-than-expected 7.2 percent in November from a year earlier, while fixed-asset investment expanded 15.8 percent in the first 11 months of the year versus the same year-ago level, in line with forecast but easing slightly.

The government announced a surprise hike in fuel tax end of November but that was seen as too modest to curb consumption and may well be offset by a further retail price cut.

China's refinery throughput in November hit 42.25 million tonnes, or 10.28 million bpd, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed, the second highest on record, up 0.3 percent from October and 5.5 percent from a year ago.

China also generated an implied surplus of more than 300,000 bpd of crude oil from January to November, according to Reuters calculations combining domestic production and net imports minus crude throughput.

High crude throughput and weak domestic demand growth have made China a net fuel exporter for six months so far this year.

Net exports in November were 70,000 tonnes, or 16,300 bpd, versus 860,000 tonnes in October and net imports of 710,000 tonnes a year ago, customs data showed earlier this week.

Copyright Reuters, 2014

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