The latest petrol bomb (the phrase used by the media and the politicians for an increase in petrol price as a direct consequence of a change in international oil price) may just prove to be one attack too many by the government on the masses. The MQMs quick response of you bombed the nation, we will bomb you has surely pushed the panic button in the treasury ranks.
The MQM has not left the government merely on the petrol price increase, it has just used the moment as a trigger to move out. And if it really was just petrol prices, then the MQM and all other parties, including a large part of media, need to present an alternative to the government of not increasing the petroleum prices. Subsidy, for sure is not the way out.
All eyes now rest on the possible moves from the opposition parties, which now enjoy a majority in the lower house, going by the official numbers assuming all of the PML(Q) does not support the PPP.
"The PML(N) holds the key but they have not made their stance clear yet. But in all likelihood, the mid-term elections seem inevitable as the President will be bound to hold mid-term polls if there is a no-confidence motion and Gilani fails to win the houses confidence," said Nadeem Malik, a renowned political analyst speaking to BR Research.
And what he thinks makes sense too because no party seems to bring about an in-house change as it is next to impossible for the newly formed opposition to nominate a candidate for PM, that too for two years. The parties who have recently left the coalition have done so in a calculated, well-maneuvered move to get voters attention in anticiaption of fresh polls. In-house change, therefore, may well be ruled out.
But there are starkingly opposite views on the matter as well, and that too from strong corners that believe the government may well continue with a possible sacrifice of PM Gilani. "I do not see mid-term polls happening. The opposition has a problem with Gilani and not the government setup. The government can replace Gilani with someone else and the system can go on smoothly," said senior journalist Nazir Naji talking to BR Research.
A lot, though, will depend on the PML(N) which seems to be confused in the situation regarding whether to stick with the provincial government or lead the no-confidence motion. There is a strong belief that the PML(N) finds itself least prepared for the mid-term polls among all opposition parties, which could take place as early as April, should Gilani fail to win confidence in the lower house.
There are obious reasons why PML(N) would want to buy more time; it has seemingly lost hold in Hazara, South Punjab and there are fears of it losing grip even in some urban centres in Central Punjab. So, its basically for the Sharifs to decide the fate of the government, it seems, and the end of the current regime may not be as near as some fear or hope.
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