Weighing up Wens promises

All hats off to Pakistans all-weather friendship with China that breathed hope in local media headlines this past week - a big feat given Pakistans fragile economic and political conditions.
Everybody seems to be excited about the positive developments emanating from the Chinese premiers recent visit to Pakistan, which has resulted in promises and agreements of doubling trade ties and multi-billion dollar investment in the long-term.
As is the case everywhere, there are contrasting views amongst Pakistani analysts following these developments. The pessimist camp sees the $15 billion Chinese investment to be highly optimistic and dreamy, given the history of MoUs in Pakistan. In fact, they believe that Chinese investment will not exceed $2 billion in the best case scenario.
Even if some deals materialise, one has to keep in view the nature of trade enhancement for the quality perspective. There already are grave concerns in some circles that trade enhancement will come at the cost of worsening trade balance with China, which already is in deficit.
Moreover, knowing that the Chinese make different qualities of products depending upon the price one is ready to pay, the advancements have to be viewed from the technology perspective as well. Obsolete technical advancement would not do a great deal in achieving the desired goal of a well-built infrastructure to get the economy ready to take off.
While, others who see the glass half full expect the deals to reap fruits, if Pakistan takes it seriously. "MoUs all over the world materialise only if there is seriousness on both sides. China is very serious; it is up to the Pakistani counterparts to stick to the Terms of References and MoUs details. There is every chance of the bilateral trade to double in five years if Pakistan prioritises the sectors to work on and speeds the process up", said Zubair Motiwala, a renowned name in trade and business circles, speaking to BR Research.
And it is not that Pakistan does not have the opportunity to tap the Chinese market. Studies suggest that China will become a net importer of textile finished goods in the next 3-4 years, presenting Pakistani textile exporters with an excellent opportunity to tap the Chinese market especially in the FTA regime, where the access is easier and cheaper.
In the energy sector, in which China has shown keen interest, it is up to the Pakistani government to demonstrate political will for reforms. China realises Pakistans energy woes and has shown keenness to invest in alternative energy, which is the need of the hour and China has the technical expertise in that field. More importantly, China is ready to invest billions of dollars without much dictation on policy matters unlike some of Pakistans other partners.
The Pakistani government should engage all its resources in making a serious and notable effort because time will be the deciding factor in how much investment eventually ends up coming to Pakistan. Pakistan will have to match the speed of the Indian counterparts to maximise the returns, for which the government and the public sector both have to pull their socks up and show willingness.