A rare, brain-damaging virus that could possibly become an epidemic threat has broken out in Kerala, India. As per WHO, Nipah virus has already killed at least 17 people. Ranked alongside Ebola and Zika among diseases that can result in a global pandemic, Nipah virus has no vaccine and no cure and it naturally resides in fruit bats.
Bahrain and UAE are among countries that import fruits and vegetables from Kerala. Following the outbreak and considering the virus’s residence, imports have been banned since Saturday. Since the Certificates of Origin issued to these perishables show that they are grown and cultivated in India, but do not specifically name the state, the ban affects Indian exports all across the country. It is possible that other markets for Indian fruits and vegetables such as Europe and Saudi Arabia will follow the Gulf States example.
India’s loss can become Pakistan’s gain, especially currently during Ramadan when fruits exports are in high demand. It has already has come to FPCCI’s attention and a statement has been issued regarding the possibility of an increase in exports, particularly that of potatoes, onion and chilies. The vacuum created in the market is significant given that about 150 tons daily are exported from India to UAE and Kuwait.
This is not the first time that ban on Indian exports has proved to be a windfall for Pakistan. EU has reduced the maximum permissible residue level of a fungicide called Tricyclazole in basmati rice to 0.01 mg per kg from the present limit of 1.0 mg per kg, effective from January this year. The Indian government has said that it would take at least three harvests of over three years to effectively modify their crops to comply with EU rules.
Since this pesticide in not used domestically, Pakistan’s rice exports to EU received a surge. EU currently imports about 360,000 tons of basmati rice a year of which around 150,000 tons are consumed by UK. India’s share in the market was 200,000 tons.
As fortuitous as India’s woes may be to Pakistan’s exports, it is regretful that Pakistan cannot successful boost its exports through indigenous measures that improve quality and better serve the global market. Making hay while the sun shines aka benefiting from ban on Indian exports is advantageous in the short run. However, for sustainable growth in exports Pakistan needs to stop depending on circumstances and invest in measures to increase global competitiveness.
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