Markets

A$ & NZ$ get lift from upbeat data, wary of ECB

Published August 2, 2012 Updated August 2, 2012 04:50am

Aussie pauses at $1.0480, having surged to a fresh four-month high of $1.0543 overnight.

It edged up around 20 pips after Australian retail sales rose a strong 1.0 pct in June, outpacing expectations, while sales for the whole quarter jumped 1.4 pct in a boost to economic growth.

But the Aussie gains were capped as markets unwilling to take big positions ahead of ECB meeting later in the session.

Interbank futures slipped as the market pares back expectations on the scale and speed of future rate cuts. Markets are now pricing a 12 percent chance of a rate cut to 3.25 pct next week, rising to two-in-three chances in September.

Overnight indexed swaps, which show where the market thinks the cash rate will be over time, now put rates at 3.0 percent in 12 months, up from 2.70 percent a week ago.

Traders cite decent support at around $1.0445 with a few stops below $1.0440. A break below would target the 38.2 pct retracement of the $1.0170/$1.0543 move at $1.0400. Hourly resistance seen at $1.0480, ahead of $1.0500-20.

NZ dollar holds around $0.8091, after stumbling to $0.8068 early from a three-month high of $0.8144 hit in offshore trade.

Kiwi not helped after the latest ANZ Commodity Price Index shows prices of top NZ commodities down 0.5 pct in July, the sixth successive monthly decline. Prices are now down nearly 19 pct from a year earlier.

Dairy prices posted a 3.5 pct rise at Fonterra's auction. A previous slide in prices has raised bets for a downward revision in payout forecast for farmers.

Dairy produce makes up over a quarter of NZ's export earnings, and the kiwi is sensitive to movements in prices.

Focus now on whether the kiwi will hold above technical support at $0.8083, the 61.8 pct retracement of its February-June decline. Traders see more support at $0.8050 while $0.8125 remains the top side.

High-beta Aussie, kiwi risk more losses if the ECB later in the day fails to commit to aggressive measures to help lower government bond yields of debt-ridden euro zone countries.

Late Wednesday, the Aussie had skidded nearly one cent after the Fed disappointed some investors who had hoped for the Fed to formally announce a fresh wave of easing.

Versus the euro , Aussie, kiwi hover near all-time highs hit earlier in the week, and many in the market see more gains if ECB disappoints.

Aussie, kiwi little changed versus yen , while Aussie/kiwi cross kept within recent ranges around NZ$1.2915.

NZ government bonds offered slightly, nudging yields a basis point higher across the curve.

Australian government bonds softer, weighed by the strong local data. The three-year contract lost 0.08 points to 97.370, while the 10-year contract shed 0.04 points to 96.925.

Copyright Reuters, 2012