Markets

A$ & NZ$ pressured by US dollar, stay strong on euro

Published July 9, 2012 Updated July 9, 2012 05:56am

Aussie at $1.0202, having retreated from a two-month high of $1.0330 hit last week. It fell as far as $1.0175 this session, lows not seen since late June.

Immediate support around $1.0163, the 50 pct retracement of the June 28-July 5 rise. Traders say a break above resistance in $1.0240/50 area necessary to rejuvenate upswing, otherwise downside potential towards $1.0125 and $1.0065/70 will persist.

Aussie and Kiwi both remain strong on the euro, which was just above lifetime lows amid talk of investors using euros to fund carry trades.

Aussie shows little reaction to lower-than-expected China CPI data, an outcome seen providing scope for Beijing to add more stimulus if necessary. China is Australia's single biggest export market.

More threatening could be China economic data due Friday with annual GDP growth seen slowing to around 7.5 pct in Q2, from 8.1 pct.

A 1.2 percent fall in local job ads in June hints at a softening of the labour market, but not material enough to alter market's interest rate expectations.

Interbank futures still implying a less than 50/50 chance of an easing next month and have factored in about 75 bps worth of cuts over the next 12 months.

Upward momentum in the Antipodeans sputters after weak US jobs growth fuelled risk aversion.

Kiwi last at $0.7974, vs an early one-week low of $0.7955, reversing last week's rally to a two-month high of $0.8076.

Charts suggest more downside for the kiwi, after it falls below $0.8037, a trendline drawn from highs hit in February and April.

Support seen at $0.7952, its 200-day moving average, but traders see the risk of a fall towards $0.7920 in the near term, with some resistance seen around Friday's high of $0.8030.

No major data due in NZ Monday, while the quarterly survey of business confidence and electronics card retail spending due Tuesday.

Aussie, kiwi wallow at one-week troughs vs the yen , another perceived safe haven.

NZ government bonds rise, nudging yields 5 bps lower across the curve.

Australian government bonds also firmer, with the three-year contract 0.11 points higher at 97.680, while the 10-year contract climbs 0.085 points to 97.090.

Copyright Reuters, 2012