Markets

A$, NZ$ holds gains vs USD, Fed stimulus eyed

Published June 20, 2012 Updated June 20, 2012 05:25am

Aussie last at $1.0177, still within easy reach of its overnight high of $1.0202. Break above $1.0220, where stops are seen, will pave the way to $1.0250, the 200-day MA, traders say

Kiwi trades at $0.7952, just off a six-week high of $0.7991. Traders expect the kiwi to push above the key $0.8000 level soon, targeting $0.8060, the low hit in March.

Markets focus on the possibility the US Federal Reserve may unveil more monetary stimulus to boost the economy later on Wednesday, which should be negative for the US currency.

Signs of struggling economies in the UK and the euro zone also fuel anticipation of more monetary stimulus from their central banks, while cooling speculation of an immediate exit by Greece from the euro zone are all working in favour of commodity currencies.

Kiwi further supported by results from the latest international dairy auction, where the overall trade-weighted index of prices slipped only 0.5 pct.

Investors are heartened that dairy prices have held on to gains made at the previous sale, when the index jumped 13.5 pct, suggesting recent sell down may have lost steam.

Technical signals still positive for the kiwi after it sails above $0.7952, its 200-DMA, while further support lies at $0.7938 the 61.8 pct retracement of its recent sell-off. Resistance seen at $0.8056, its 100-DMA.

Kiwi shrugs off NZ widening annual current account deficit to 4.8 pct vs market expectations of 4.6 pct as trade surplus narrows, with analysts bracing for further deterioration.

No alarm for now, but the deficit is set to rise above 5 pct soon. "This is a worrying situation for any country in the current environment when the debt and deficit level is being scrutinized," said Bank of NZ head of research Stephen Toplis.

Aussie shrugs off a 12.6 pct fall in first quarter dwelling unit starts, as report simply confirms a very weak housing sector.

Antipodeans retreat vs the yen , but still hover near their highest levels in roughly a month set on Tuesday.

Kiwi gives just a little ground to the euro, which rises around 0.3 percent to NZ$1.5926. Single currency steady at A$1.2446.

NZ government bonds slip slightly, raising yields up to 3 bps.

Australian government bonds also slip, with the three-year contract 0.090 points lower at 97.620, while the 10-year contract is down 0.085 points at 96.945.

Copyright Reuters, 2012