Markets

A$ & NZ$ firm on euro, RBA easing was a close call

Published June 19, 2012 Updated June 19, 2012 04:34am

The Aussie firm at $1.0126, near a six-week high of $1.0143 scaled on Monday. Support around $1.0110 and $1.0060 with resistance at $1.0145.

Technical signs support the Aussie, as its break above resistance at $1.0600, its 55-day moving average, suggests more room to rise.

Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) June meeting showed arguments for an easing had been "finely balanced" with domestic resilience outweighed in the end by global concerns.

Market continues to price in further aggressive easing of around 100 basis points, largely on fears Europe will only get worse from here.

The euro was down at A$1.2434, having skidded 0.9 pct on Monday to a 13-week trough around $1.2391. Traders reported heavy selling by real money managers overnight. The euro also touched a two-month trough on the kiwi.

Euro hit after initial optimism that a new, pro-bailout government in Greece may prevent an immediate euro zone exit gives way to concerns about the fiscal fragility of other euro zone countries.

Many sought safety in the highly liquid US dollar, but the Aussie and the kiwi, which are often considered higher-risk currencies, shook off the effects of a stronger greenback as they surged against the euro.

Aussie and the kiwi are driven by external factors as investors continue to focus on euro zone debt issues, along with a meeting of G20 leaders and speculation the Federal Reserve may open the door to more monetary easing on Wednesday.

Australian government bonds hold gains in line with Treasuries and safe-haven demand. Three-year contract 0.080 points higher at 97.680, while the 10-year contract added 0.090 points to 97.015.

The NZ dollar was flat around $0.7922, not far from late local levels on Monday, having climbed as high as $0.7944, its highest since early May.

Westpac says the kiwi has retraced 62 pct of May's decline, pointing to a possible reversal, albeit signals not clear for now. However, upward momentum remains, with a break above $0.7944 likely sending the currency to $0.8060.

NZ dollar not affected after NZ extends a US$1 billion stand-by loan facility to the IMF to deal with major disruption to the global economy. The government says the loan will have no impact on its budget surplus plan.

Both currencies supported against the Japanese yen , having hit their highest in roughly a month on Monday.

The Aussie around NZ$1.2760, little changed from late local trade and recovering from a slide to NZ$1.2700 on Monday, its weakest since early May.

NZ government bonds rise, pushing yields up to 7 bps lower across the curve.

Copyright Reuters, 2012