Markets

Aussie, kiwi dollars off lows, China eyed

Published May 11, 2012 Updated May 11, 2012 04:43am

WELLINGTON/SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars held above four-month lows versus the US dollar on Friday, but investors were cautious ahead of China's retail sales data.

Aussie edges lower to $1.0057 from $1.0092 in NY, having touched a high of $1.0144 on Thursday after upbeat jobs data.

Aussie down 3.6 pct this month and a breach of key support at around $1.0040 would open the way to parity. It touched a low of $1.0021 this week.

Kiwi subdued at $0.7835 from $0.7858 in NY. Modest recovery in the Aussie helps the NZ dollar lift from a four-month low of $0.7813 hit on Thursday.

Kiwi may test the topside as far as $0.7900, after the latest selldown was halted, with immediate support sitting at $0.7813, the low on Wednesday.

Antipodean currencies barely react to Chinese inflation report which was in line with expectations.

Focus now on China's industrial production and retail sales at 0530 GMT clues on the nation's growth outlook.

Aussie and kiwi are sensitive to news from China. A key export market and a driver of prices for crucial exports such as iron ore and coal.

Risk sentiment fragile with Asian bourses in the red, partly following JPMorgan Chase & Co 's unexpected $2 billion market loss in a trading book.

Commodity currencies under pressure on mounting worries that Greece's political deadlock could lead to a messy euro zone exit.

Fresh concerns about Spanish banks may deal another major blow to an already shaky global economic recovery.

Latest NZ data points to some steadying in consumer activity after a set of softer numbers in the previous week. Electronic card retail sales, a partial indicator for retail sales, rose 0.8 pct in April vs forecast 0.6 pct rise.

NZ food price index down 0.1 pct in April, backing benign inflation picture.

Markets pricing for a rate cut next month eases to 34 pct from 80 pct earlier this week. Kiwi has been battered over the past week on weak jobs data and lower dairy prices, the country's biggest export.

In Australia, the prospects of further rate cuts at home keeps government debt near record highs. The 10-year yield last at 3.36 pct, having slumped to 3.30 pct its lowest since the 1950s.

Bond futures steady with the three-year contract at 97.300, off 97.440, its highest since 1992, while the 10-year contract at 96.695, very near a lifetime high of 96.780.

NZ government bonds softer, helping yields recover as much as 7 bps in the front end.

Copyright Reuters, 2012