A new book out of the World Bank on "South Asia's Hotspots - The Impact of Temperature and Precipitation Changes on Living Styles" warns of the clear and present danger of changing weather conditions' impact on living standards in this region. In Pakistan, the most vulnerable hotspot is Sindh, followed by Punjab - the two lower riparian provinces. The book, authored by five experts, notes that at present Sindh has the second-largest economy with per capita GDP growth of $1,400, which is 35 percent higher than the national average. Punjab, the most densely populated province, has the largest economy among the four provinces, contributing 53.3 percent to the GDP, and overall has the lowest poverty rate in the country. Nonetheless, the two relatively prosperous units of the federation are most vulnerable to climate change, threatening their future growth prospects.
There is nothing new about the prognosis, though. Various global climate change reports and indices have been placing Pakistan among the countries at the greatest risk. In fact, during the recent years, the country has been experiencing extreme weather events, like floods, droughts, and heatwaves with destructive consequences for life and property. The worst floods that hit vast swathes of the country in 2010 affected 18 million people. As many as 1,985 persons were killed, whilst the economy suffered huge losses, according to one estimate, 5.4 percent of the GDP. There is no doubt about the fact that Pakistan faces serious climate challenges, but there is little evidence of any action being taken to deal with them. In a country where more than half of the population is directly dependent on agriculture, the future could bring more calamitous events unless those concerned get their act together and adopt mitigation measures.
The problem is not that those concerned are unaware of the looming threat, they have other priorities. It is worth noting that the country's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution Report, prepared as required under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, talks in great detail how Pakistan being one of the most climate change vulnerable countries in the world, its economy is already under severe strain from prevailing and likely further threats of climate change. Yet how low the matter has been on governmental priorities is obvious from the fact that soon after coming to power in 2013, the PML-N government downgraded the climate change ministry to division level, restoring the ministry in early 2015, probably to award a party loyalist, Mushahid Ullah Khan, with a cabinet position. Yet the ministry was not allocated the needed financial resources to do its work. On the contrary, those in the know say most of the ministry's powers and budget were slashed. It can only be hoped the new government will give the issue the attention it truly deserves.