African currencies week ahead: Ugandan shilling seen on back foot, others stable

The Ugandan currency is expected to remain under pressure next week in the absence of a central bank intervention as banks and importers rush to firm up their hard currency positions, but other African currencies are expected to be steady.
UGANDA - Over the last three months, the Uganda shilling has experienced accelerated depreciation, pushing it to lose 6.6 percent of its value against the dollar so far this year. At 1023 GMT commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,890/3,900, weaker than last Thursday's closing of 3,845/3,855. "I think BoU (Bank of Uganda) is not reading the market right, their choosing to stay quiet is fanning a lot of the speculative activity going on," a trader at a leading commercial bank said.
He was referring to the central bank's decision not to intervene for a second time this month to try to halt the shilling's slide. The central bank last sold dollars on June 8. KENYA - The Kenyan shilling is forecast to hold steady against the dollar with inflows from offshore investors balancing end month demand and a globally strong dollar, traders said.
Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 100.75/95 per dollar compared with 101.00/20 at last Thursday's close. "A strong dollar is not stopping foreign investors from coming in... End-month demand should be expected," said a senior trader from a commercial bank.
TANZANIA - The Tanzanian shilling is expected to continue holding steady against the US dollar in the coming days, buoyed by a slowdown in demand for greenbacks from importers. Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 2,275/2,280 to the dollar on Thursday, unchanged from a week ago. "The local currency will likely trade at same levels against the US dollar next week," said a trader at CRDB Bank.
GHANA - Ghana's cedi is seen flat against the dollar as the central bank steps up its dollar sales to ease a firming demand by local and foreign investors, analysts said. The currency has declined steadily against the dollar since the end of April, partly because of broader weakness in emerging markets assets and a rise in the greenback. It was trading at 4.7450 by mid-morning on Thursday, against 4.7017 a week ago.
"We expect the cedi to remain flat in the week ahead as the central bank steps up efforts to meet the increasing dollar demand," said currency analyst Raphael Adongo Adubila. He projected that the pair could trade within 4.74 to 4.76 range next week.
ZAMBIA - The kwacha is expected to hold within the current range, supported by dollar sales from companies preparing to pay salaries and other month end obligations. On Thursday, commercial banks quoted the currency of Africa's No.2 copper producer at 10.0600 per dollar from a close of 9.9200 a week ago.
Traders said the local unit would hold within this level. "The kwacha depreciation will slow down next week with anticipated dollar conversions for local expenditure obligations," Independent financial analyst Mambo Hamaundu said.