Russia's winter grain sowings have passed the winter well, with only 3 to 5 percent in poor condition, the head of weather forecaster Hydrometcentre said on Thursday, indicating the country is on track for large crop in 2018. One of the world's largest grain exporters harvested a record grain crop of more than 135 million tonnes in 2017, when the winter was also mild and favourable for winter grains and only 4 percent of sowings ended up in poor condition.
"It is the third consecutive winter when the weather conditions improve and do not worsen germination of winter grains," Roman Vilfand, head of Hydrometcentre, told reporters. The start of spring grain sowing in Russia has been delayed due to a late spring and deep snow cover. However, a good level of soil moisture is so far bolstering the chances of a good crop.
"If the weather allows, the fourth year of good harvest, lower only than the last year's record, is waiting for Russia," said Andrey Sizov at the SovEcon agriculture consultancy. The delayed spring sowing creates risks for spring barley in the Volga and central regions of Russia, Sizov said. He is also keeping an eye on weather in Siberia which had three consecutive years of good crops and could face lower yields this year.
According to Vilfand, the situation in Russia's southern and central regions is improving, while in Siberia it is still slightly worse than a year ago. SovEcon expects Russia's 2018 grain crop to be 128.7 million tonnes, including 77.6 million tonnes of wheat. In 2017, the harvest was 135.4 million and 85.9 million tonnes, respectively. The Russian farmers sowed winter grains for the 2018 crop on 17.1 million hectares, down from 17.3 million hectares a year earlier. They now plan to sow spring grains on 31.0 million hectares, down 0.4 percent from a year earlier.