The long-awaited National Water Policy prepared in consultation with the provinces recommends development and management of water resources on a war footing without mentioning the controversial Kalabagh dam.
The 41-page draft National Water Policy, which is to be considered by the Council of Common Interests (CCI) on Wednesday (tomorrow) was signed by Deputy Chairman Planning Commission, Sartaj Aziz, Federal Minister for Power, Sardar Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari, Minister for Water Resources, Syed Javed Ali Shah, Secretary Water Resources, Shumail Ahmad Khawaja, Secretary Power Division, Yousuf Naseem Khokhar, Secretary Planning, Development and Reforms, Shoaib Siddiqui, Chief Secretary Punjab, Captain Zahid Hussain(retired), Secretary Irrigation, Sindh, Chief Secretary Balochistan, Aurangzeb Haque and shahzad Bangish on behalf of Chief Secretary KP.
The National Water Policy recognizes the need for the sector to receive at least 10 percent of Federal PSDP gradually increasing it to 20 percent by 2030. Provincial Governments are urged to also increase expenditure for this sector as total allocation of Rs 145 billion, ie, 7 percent of the combined federal and provincial development budget for 2017-18, is totally inadequate.
According to the draft policy, Pakistan''s river flows are heavily dependent on glacial melt (41%), snowmelt (22%) and rainfall (27%). The Indus River System receives an annual influx of about 134.8 Million Acre Feet (MAF) of water. Pakistan receives snowfall only in the Northern Areas of the country during winter. Rainfall is markedly erratic in magnitude, time of occurrence and aerial distribution. The mean annual precipitation ranges from less than 100 mm in parts of the Lower Indus Plain to over 750 mm near the foothills in the Upper Indus Plain.
The country is mainly dependent on the three western rivers of the Indus (including Kabul, Jhelum and Chenab). Post-Tarbela (1976-2008) flows (Indus at Kalabagh, Jhelum at Mangla and Chenab at Marala) are 137 MAF. The three eastern tributaries of the Indus - Ravi, Sutlej and Beas - were allocated to India for its exclusive use. Currently about 1.4 MAF water flows from India to Pakistan through these eastern rivers, also included in Pakistan''s total surface water is 21 MAF from the Kabul River.
Pakistan is extracting 50 MAF from the aquifers and already crossed the sustainable limit of safe yield. This over-mining and pollution of aquifers has resulted in secondary salinization and the presence of fluorides and arsenic in water, which in turn is degrading the quality of agricultural lands.
The Indus Water Treaty led to the construction of multiple hydraulic structures. These enabled Pakistan to enhance water availability at canal head works to about 104.0 MAF. However, this has now started decreasing because of the lack of surface water development since construction of Tarbela dam and the significant loss of on-line storage capacity through sedimentation. Of the 104.0 MAF of annual canal diversion, only 58.3 MAF reaches the farm-gate, with the remaining 46.7 MAF seeping into the ground water.
Ministry of Water Resources argues that water availability can be enhanced through a reduction in water loss, additional water storage through large, medium and small dams, recycling used waters, desalinization of sea water and more efficient water use. An important aim of the National Water Policy is to fix quantifiable targets in each of these sub-sectors with a timeline and estimated resources required over the next twelve years ie by 2030.
Main Targets proposed for 2018-2030 can be summarized as follows: (i) reduction of 33 percent in the 46 MAF river flows that are lost in conveyance, through accelerated programme of water course lining specially in saline or semi saline areas; (ii) in order to augment the dwindling irrigation deliveries into the existing canal systems on account of ever decreasing existing storage capacity of Mangla and Tarbela due to sedimentation and to develop new cultivated area on canal irrigated water, the existing water storage capacity of 14 MAF must be increased by immediately starting construction of the Diamer-Basha Dam Project having 6.4 MAF live storage on which consensus of all the federating units has already been achieved in 2009 at CCI level; Mohmand Dam with live capacity of 0.676 MAF and other countrywide small and medium dams having cumulative live storage capacity of at least 2 MAF, in the next 12 years ie up to year 2030;(iii) increase of at least 30 percent in the efficiency of water use by producing "more crop per drop". This will require use of new technologies like drip and sprinkler irrigation and more realistic water pricing policy. The present average rate of water charges per acre is only one fourth of what the farmer pays for tubewell water in the ground water market; and (iv) real-time monitoring of river flows by IRSA must be ensured through inter alia telemetric monitoring to maintain transparent water accounting system and to check the increasing trend of unaccounted-for water in the Indus System of Rivers. This task should be completed before end 2021.
The sources said in order to establish and maintain a reliable assessment of water resources in the country, federal and provincial water sector organizations should develop a standardized and uniform mechanism for data collection of various parameters of water resources including but not limited to rivers/canals gauge and discharge, rainfall/snowfall, depth to groundwater table, surface subsurface water quality parameters, river/canal and reservoirs sedimentation.
The policy has recommended upgradation of Provincial Irrigation and Drainage Authorities (PIDAs) into a higher level "Provincial Water Authority" (PWA) with capacity to design and construct small and medium sized dams and also large scale irrigation infrastructure.
Revitalization and restructuring of Wapda, establishment of ground water authority, conservation and efficiency, storage, investment requirement, capacity building of water sector institutions, establishment of National Water Council are some of the key recommendations. The most important instrument of mitigation against the impact of climate change on water resources is storage. If the pattern of rainfall becomes erratic with more than average rain in one year and a drastic reduction in the coming year''s rainfall, the only way to conserve the surplus rainwater in wet years is to store it and release it in dry years, when required.
For storage and new irrigation projects a national master plan must be developed and approved at the CCI level, which must cater for storage, floods, arid areas, irrigation, urban water and tariff rationalization.
The past arguments against new dams like danger of flooding or inflow of saline water have to be re-evaluated in the light of the impacts of climate change. In addition, there are vast possibilities of small and medium size dams, enhancing the life of existing storages and remodeling and rehabilitation of existing infrastructure in the country. Expansion of water storage will also increase the proportion of hydropower in the energy mix, reducing the need for thermal power.
The policy has also recommended that the federal government must play a leading role in facilitating regulations to ensure the efficient and sustainable utilization of ground water, industrial uses, and waste water management. Food security, water security and energy security being inextricably linked, so the regulatory framework must address all the associated issues comprehensively including ground water, waste treatment, open defecation (WASH).
With rapidly growing population, Pakistan is heading towards a situation of water shortage, by corollary a threat of food security. Per capita surface water availability has declined from 5,260 cubic meters per year in 1951 to around 1,000 cubic meters in 2016. This quantity is likely to further drop to about 860 cubic meters by 2025 marking Pakistan''s transition from a " water stressed" to a " water scarce" country ( the minimum water requirement to avoid food and health implications of water scarcity is 1,000 cubic meters per capita per year).
According to the Ministry of Water Resources, the impact of climate change in intensification of floods, erratic monsoon rains, and droughts are major concerns for Pakistan. Other likely effects on water resources could include: (i) recession/ boom of the Himalyan, Karakuram and Hindukush glaciers, threatening water inflows into Indus River System; (ii) increased siltation of dams and reservoirs caused by more frequent and intense floods; (iii) shorter duration of snowfall and its prolonged melting bringing drastic changes in mass balances; (iv) increase in the formation of Glacial Lakes Outburst Floods (GLOF); (v) increased intrusion of saline sea water in the Indus delta, adversely affecting coastal agriculture, mangroves and fisheries; (vi) rising temperatures resulting in enhanced heat and water-stress conditions, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, leading to reduced agriculture productivity; and (vii) with rise in temperature, as a result of climate change, crops will require more water due to excessive evaporate inspiration, cattle consume more water and human consumption would also increase.
On trans-boundary water sharing, the draft national water policy states that a substantial part of Pakistan''s fresh water resources is generated from outside the country. Indus Water Treaty (IWT) provides a mechanism for sharing of water of Indus system of rivers with India.
The policy has proposed that a mechanism be worked out for sharing of trans-boundary aquifers and joint watershed management including sharing of composite real-time flow information especially relating to hydro-meteorological disasters/disaster-like situations endangering Pakistan''s important infrastructure, communication network and economy. In this regard, regional mechanisms may be also be looked into for viable solutions to growing vulnerabilities of Pakistan to hydro-metrological disasters owning to trans-border water release and stoppage at critical times.