World coffee output is seen rising to a fresh record in 2017/18 as a recovery in robusta production offsets a decline in the arabica variety, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said on Tuesday. Global coffee output is expected to reach about 158.8 million 60-kg bags in 2017/18, up 0.7 percent from last season's record production, the ICO said in a monthly report.
Arabica coffee production is seen falling to 97.3 million bags, down 1.1 percent from the 2016/17 season. That is partly due to a 6.7 percent drop in Brazil's arabica output to 38.63 million bags. After five years of expansion, Colombian production is also expected to fall 4.3 percent to 14 million bags, as heavy rains caused damage to the trees during flowering, the ICO said.
However, the slump in top arabica producers is likely to be offset by a recovery in global robusta production, which is forecast at 61.5 million bags, up 3.7 percent from the 2016/17 season. This increase is mainly due to a rebound in top grower Vietnam, which is seen producing 28.5 million bags in 2017/18, up 11.6 percent on the prior season. Poor weather slashed the country's 2016/17 output by 11.1 percent.
Increases in output from Honduras, India, Uganda, Mexico, Ethiopia and Peru are also seen boosting overall global coffee production, as well as offsetting an expected decline in Indonesia's crop. Global coffee consumption is forecast to rise to 157.6 million bags in 2017/18, up from 155.1 million bags in 2016/17, the ICO said.