Nawaz Sharif seems to have resigned himself to his fate. He believes, and rightly so, that he cannot become the country's fourth elected prime minister, not in the foreseeable future in any case. The question therefore is: What is actually behind his change of mind? There could be many reasons, but his indictment by an accountability court appears to be the principal reason behind his decision to come out of his imagined utopia. It was minutes after his appearance in the accountability court, where he pleaded not guilty to the charges against him, he told the media: "Mark my words: I will be sentenced by this court." He "explained," among other things, that he expected no justice from the judiciary that has displayed as "anti-Nawaz Sharif" bias from day one (ie, the Panama Papers proceedings in the Supreme Court). In other words, he was implying that his ouster from the Prime Minister's House is a result of a conspiracy in which both the judiciary and the army have played a significant role.
At a rally in Abbottabad, where he launched his party's formal election campaign, he not only indulged in brazen attacks on the judiciary, he notched it up further. He argued that had the judges acted judiciously and fairly "a very large number of people" would not be at his rally to listen to him, stating "Nawaz Sharif is not a loser. If he was a loser, you and I would not be friends." According to him, "no court's decision can break the ties" between him and his followers in Abbottabad. It was only at this rally where he made public his fears, saying "I may not be prime minister anymore, but the [Haripur to Havelian] motorway will continue being built... Here he turned ideologue: "Nawaz Sharif is an ideology and this ideology will bring revolutionary change across Pakistan." It is heartening that at least he is no longer denying the possibility of troubles ahead. One of these is one he is himself creating his questionable strategy of continuous attacks on state institutions, the judiciary in particular. Will this help improve his prospects? Meanwhile, there is something else to worry about his inept handling of the situation. His ever-growing belligerence has already cast a shadow over the future of his entrepreneur sons, Hussain and Hassan, who have been declared absconders by an accountability court. And his heiress-apparent, so to speak, his politician elder daughter Maryam Nawaz has been indicted in corruption references. All this shows that his approach is devoid of prudence and caution. He has even landed his over-ambitious brother Shahbaz Sharif, who is one of the accused in the Hudaibiya case. No one knows what the future holds for him, either. However, there appears to be a flip side to all this: Punjab is Nawaz Sharif's support base, as it has been for decades since before Ziaul Haq's death. And defiance against the powerful is valued and appreciated in this province. So if he is to retain his support in Punjab and remain relevant in the political arena at least there, he has to remain on the offensive against the powers in Islamabad.
This might well be the reason why Nawaz Sharif has decided to continue his belligerence, his approach of confrontation and conflict. It is about time for him to reflect deep into these questions: Was it not a mistake to attribute Imran Khan's 126-day Islamabad dharna to the Establishment's alleged anti-PML-N endeavours in the absence of concrete evidence? Why did he doubt the intention of political parties that had opened a window of opportunity for him through the settlement of the Panama Papers issue within the remit of Parliament? Had he failed to distinguish between the Supreme Court-led by Justice Zaheeruddin Jamali and the one that was led by Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry?