Status quo

The status quo parties, notably the PML-N and the PPPP, have been accused of following economic policies that ensure their political status quo at the cost of their negative economic fallout: extending utilities (gas and electricity) to areas for purposes of gaining voter support, carrying out development work mainly in constituencies which have elected a member of the ruling elite, giving high paying jobs to loyalists/relatives and in the case of PPPP, overstaffing state-owned entities (SOEs) that have sound the death knell of many an entity, and last but not least, awarding lucrative contracts on the basis of nepotism - be it for personal or political reasons.
The politics of extending gas and electricity to un-served areas is fraught with a significant negative economic cost given that the country has been subjected to a steadily growing demand-supply gap with negative implications on production of those units that rely on gas as an energy source and on all existing domestic consumers. During the tenure of the PPP-led coalition government (2008-13) a decision to ban new connections to industrial, commercial and residential colonies was taken on 18th April 2011 for six months. The reason: unless this measure was taken, the hours of gas shedding would increase to politically unacceptable levels. The moratorium was extended for a year on 18th October 2011 and on 12th November 2012 a summary for an extension was submitted to the then Prime Minister Raja Parvez Ashraf which was termed redundant by 25 May 2013 after the PML-N won the elections. However, the moratorium during the PPP tenure did not stop the grant of exemptions, including development schemes, by PPP prime ministers, and as per an informed official, accounted for an increase in demand by about 512 MMCFD.
The Sharif administration has acted no differently. A moratorium on new gas connections in November 2013 for two years was followed by the Prime Minister approving connections to many close to him with un-served areas in their constituencies. The list includes Who is Close to Nawaz Sharif: his son-in-law Captain Safdar, federal ministers including the relevant minister Shahid Khaqan Abbassi (one would have hoped he had been able to convince his own constituents to use the more expensive imported LNG as he has been suggesting to the rest of the country), Khawaja Asif, etc. A coalition partner, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, was also included in the list as were several PML-N MNAs while cases submitted by several opposition leaders, including the Chief Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were rejected. Also rejected were requests by federal minister Ahsan Iqbal, Minister for Food Security Bosan and Minister for Human Rights Kamran Michael. This was revealed through a petition filed in the Islamabad High Court by an advocate seeking gas connection for his village Kholian Bala in KPK's Haripur district. The Attorney General maintained that the approvals are within the discretionary powers enjoyed by the Prime Minister while others deem his direct approval illegal vide the 18 August 2016 Supreme Court verdict which declared that the prime minister cannot bypass his cabinet. Needless to add, the Cabinet, supremely subservient to the Prime Minister, would rubber-stamp any of his directives hence it is unlikely that this verdict would have a significant bearing on an informed debate taking place in the cabinet meetings.
Using state funds to win votes through development work has been a normal feature of our politics - be they civilian or military governments. The Supreme Court of Pakistan in its decision on July 22, 2013 on the constitution petition titled "action against distribution of development fund by ex-Prime Minister, Raja Pervez Ashraf" directed that the left over work be assessed as to whether it is in the public interest and feasible and if found not to be so then it should be abandoned and the funds made available for the purpose be deposited with the public exchequer. It is unclear whether any such exercise took place but the case clearly shows that carrying out development work in one's constituency does not guarantee an electoral win: Raja Parvez Ashraf and his predecessor Gilani invested billions of rupees from the Prime Minister's discretionary funds for Haripur and Multan respectively and yet both men lost the 2013 elections. Clearly, this is a lesson that has not been learned by Nawaz Sharif and those close to him report that he considers what happened to his two immediate predecessors as aberrations. Time will tell whether the linkage between development and votes has been restored or broken.
The PPP as a political party has been accused of using SOEs as recruitment centres for its grass root loyalists and this has led to overstaffing and in turn, seriously compromised the economic health of many an entity including the PIA and PSM. Be that as it may, Nawaz Sharif's administration has been accused of violating the principle of merit as determined by relevant education and experience in hiring for senior positions and its proof is in the sustained poor performance of PIA and PSM. Pakistan Railways has turned around to some extent but two facts are extremely disturbing: (i) the number of accidents has increased due to there being no gates at hundreds of crossings; in this context, one would have hoped that allocations for public safety had taken precedence over increasing the number of imported bogies; Minister Saad Rafique has laid the blame for accidents on provincial governments however one would hope that public safety, a prime objective of any state-run institution in contrast to a privately run entity, is given precedence over profits; and (ii) as PR is one of the few entities that have received generous budgeted annual funding and the entire allocation disbursed one would have hoped for a more visible improvement in performance.
Awarding lucrative contracts to those who are close to the party leaders was as much evident during the Zardari-led government as it is during the Sharif administration. To name just a couple, the third runway for the new international airport under construction in Islamabad, a runway that is not justified by the existing traffic at that airport, has been given to the in-laws of Nawaz Sharif's granddaughter; and Hanif Abbasi, a man with no relevant experience, was given the contract to head the construction of the Metrobus in Pindi-Islamabad.
To conclude, the status quo parties that have ruled this country - PPP, PML-N as well as military dictators - have all relied on taking these decisions for political reasons even though the nexus between traditional politics (notably the linkage between mega projects/funds to MNAs for development projects/extending utilities to un-served areas/giving jobs to loyalists) was not visible in the 2013 election results in cities at least. The proof of this contention: in 15 Punjab cities PPP won around 37 seats in 2008 and only 3 in 2013. And this in spite of Zardari playing traditional politics and launching the Benazir Income Support Programme.
Would Mian sahib be able to retain the seats in cities in 2018 that he won in 2013 would be the key question. And after Donald Trump's victory in the US one would be bound to throw in the contribution of social media, again in use in cities as opposed to rural areas, in our 2018 elections.