EU sees soft wheat crop rising to 143 million tonnes in 2017-18

Soft wheat production in the European Union is expected to rise 6.5 percent next season, driven by a sharp rebound in France after a poor crop last year, the EU's executive said. In a first crop outlook for 2017/18 posted on its website, the European Commission forecast that usable soft wheat production in the 28-country EU would reach 143 million tonnes in 2017/18, up from 134.3 million this season.
With the EU soft wheat area estimated to fall slightly, to 23.8 million hectares from 24.1 million in the previous harvest, the increase in production would be due to higher yields. The Commission did not give a yield forecast but said its outlook was based on average historical yields. France would account for most of the rise in soft wheat output, with the Commission projecting a French crop of 36.2 million tonnes, against just under 28 million tonnes in 2016/17.
Last summer's harvest brought the worst French wheat yields in three decades after cold, damp spring weather hurt crops. The Commission's EU-wide soft wheat forecast was close to the 143.8 million tonnes estimated last month by private analysts Strategie Grains.
The Commission also forecast that EU soft wheat exports would rise to 28.9 million tonnes in 2017/18, from an expected 24.0 million in 2016/17, while soft wheat stocks at the end of 2017/18 were seen at 10.2 million tonnes, little changed from 10.3 million forecast for 2016/17.
In other cereals, the Commission projected the EU's 2017/18 barley crop at 62.7 million tonnes, up 5 percent, and maize production at 66.6 million tonnes, up 10.3 percent. Durum, the wheat variety used to produce pasta, would be the only major cereal crop expected to see a drop in production, with the 2017/18 crop pegged down 2.2 percent at 8.8 million tonnes, reflecting a sharp estimated fall in area. In oilseeds, the Commission forecast that rapeseed production would climb 10.6 percent to 22.1 million tonnes in 2017/18, rebounding from a four-year low of 20 million tonnes harvested this season.
This was based on an estimated 2 percent rise in the EU rapeseed area to 6.62 million hectares and yields in line with the average of recent years. The rapeseed crop forecast was above Strategie Grains' outlook given last month when the analysts cut their forecast by 500,000 tonnes to 21.6 million to factor in winter damage in eastern EU countries. Rapeseed stocks at the end of 2017/18 were projected at 1.1 million tonnes, slightly above the 1.0 million tonnes expected in 2016/17.