Criticality of census

During a recent meeting of the Senate Standing Committee on Finance chaired by Saleem Mandviwalla, Chief Census Commissioner Asif Bajwa emphasised the importance of a census in formulating appropriate economic policies that target the problem areas identified by the census as well as determine the province-wise distribution of the divisible pool, a component of the National Finance Commission (NFC) award. Professor Mehtab, a man with considerable experience in the field internationally, told the Standing Committee that Sindh was undercounted in the 1998 census as a subsequent review revealed that around 5 to 7 million people were missing from the count. This is nothing new as the US Census Bureau also acknowledged that "the 1990 census missed an estimated 4.4 percent of African Americans but missed only 0.9 percent of whites". But this was resolved by learning lessons and actually doing a head count rather than projecting the population growth rate. In Pakistan, for example, the Christian population has been projected as having zero growth which is simply unbelievable.
Dr Mehtab also stated that data on migration between provinces should be counted in the census and added that as Punjab lost population to migration Sindh gained. Again one can fully support the collection of migration data. For example, Karachi, the capital of Sindh and the country's economic hub, has received millions of people mainly hailing from southern parts of Punjab - particularly districts of Rahimyar Khan, Muzaffar Garh and Bahawalpur - since the last census. Majority of these people have found a variety of jobs in this city of teeming millions. Their womenfolk work as domestic help while male members drive CNG rickshaws, run barbers' shops and work as labourers in construction activities. Their increased presence highlights a shift in Karachi's population as they are said to have surpassed the number of Pakhtuns.
The last census exercise carried out in Pakistan was 17 years ago and the NFC award 2010-15 remains prevalent today given the failure of Finance Minister Ishaq Dar to evolve a consensus over the 9th award. Article 160 (3 A) of the constitution expressly states that "the share of the provinces in each award of NFC shall not be less than the share given to the provinces in the previous award," and given the fact that two of the provinces are led by non-PML (N) governments Dar's foot dragging in the award is, undoubtedly, premised on his concern that the provinces would seek a further raise in their share of the divisible pool which would further limit the revenue of the federal government.
Be that as it may, a census the world over is recognised as being inherently political even though economists unceasingly point out its criticality in formulating informed socio-economic policies and implementing them. The US Census Bureau notes that census "information affects the numbers of seats your state occupies in the US House of Representatives". In Pakistan, it is widely acknowledged that the delay in the census is largely attributable to concern by political parties that demographics may have changed to a degree that they would negatively impact on their voting base in existing constituencies or in newly-formed constituencies as a consequence of a rise in population splitting one constituency into two. However, while the census exercise is divorced from politics in the developed democracies in Pakistan this has never been the case - be it a civilian or a military government - as all administrations have allowed the census exercise to be subordinated to politics. The way has been either direct intervention (an example being Musharraf's decision to increase the number of constituencies to benefit the MQM) or indirect (by not holding a census at all). This has fuelled concerns in the political parties of data manipulation prompting calls for army supervision of data collection.
But what has been a source of serious concern, especially given the scale of data manipulation by the Finance Ministry through its administrative control of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), is the fact that the Census Commissioner is a staffer of PBS. Provinces where the PML-N does not form a government have suggested that the enumerators, staff of the provincial education departments, begin to share their information with the provincial governments/public as a check and balance on the possibility of data manipulation by the PBS. This is essentially a good suggestion and one would hope that the government follows it.
And finally, for data analysis, as per reports, PBS intends to take from two to three years once the second phase of data collection is completed by September this year. Analysis is a critical element of any census exercise and one would hope that the Census Commissioner is empowered to hire good data analysts, perhaps even Professor Mehtab, to ensure informed conclusions.