Brazil's 2016-17 soyabean crop seen at record 104.7 million tones

Brazil's 2016-17 soyabean crop will reach a record 104.7 million tonnes, favoured by good weather as the harvest gains pace in important growing regions, according to an average of 19 analysts and groups polled by Reuters on Wednesday.
The latest estimate is up from a January poll that put the crop at 103.5 million tonnes. It would represent an increase of 9.7 percent over the 2015-16 harvest. The confirmation of a huge crop in Brazil, world's largest exporter, should boost global supplies, potentially keeping prices under pressure.
"I believe the crop is sure to be somewhere above 103 million tonnes," said Pedro Dejneka, partner at MD Commodities consultant, formerly AGR Brasil. On Wednesday, Agroconsult analysts raised their forecast to 105.3 million tonnes, from 104.4 million tonnes in early January, after the first results of the Rally da Safra crop tour.
"Samples and surveys taken on the field confirm a high potential for the new crop, and farmers are very optimistic with the early results," said Agroconsult's Valmir Assarice. Brazil's soyabean harvest reached 10 percent of the total planted area last week, the same pace seen a year ago, according to the AgRural consultancy firm. The first fields in Mato Grosso state, Brazil's main soyabean producer, were harvested in the first half of January, under dry conditions.
After that, rains slowed down the work but not to the point of damaging mature crops. On the contrary, the wet weather favored long-cycle soyabeans and those planted later in the season. A bumper crop in Brazil should help boost exports, which are forecast at a record of 59.5 million tonnes this season, almost 4 million tonnes more than forecast shipments from the United States, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Analysts say the only doubt about Brazil's crop rests on the weather for the next 30 to 45 days in important areas like Rio Grande do Sul state and a frontier agricultural region of the northeast known as Matopiba, where soyabeans are grown later in the season.
Weather during the 2016-17 crop was influenced by a mild La Ni?a phenomenon, producing roughly average precipitation, different from last year's El Ni?o, which caused a drought that badly hurt yields. As the period when crops are most weather-sensitive approaches its end, specialists say severe losses are less and less likely.
"We may see slightly lower yields in Matopiba, but even the rains are now on historic average and they will harvest a decent crop, much better than last year's tragedy," said Flavio Junior, head of Junior consultancy. See estimates bellow, in million tonnes.