'Pakistan's aviation needs boost to capitalise on CPEC,' says Mark Goh, National University Singapore

Mark Goh is currently a Professor at the Department of Decision Sciences and Director (industry Research) with the Logistics Institute-Asia Pacific at the National University of Singapore, where his areas of interest include supply chain management and physical distribution management. His first book was called 'Growth triangle: problems and prospects in international business,' which studied international business from the lens of economic development in Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia.

BR Research recently caught up with Mark at the 32nd AGM of Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), where he gave the Allama Iqbal Lecture on the 'role of productivity, quality and innovation in making CPEC work for Pakistan.' The following interview is the edited draft of his post-lecture discussion with BR Research. The topic, of course, is CPEC seen from the lens of Mark's area of expertise.

<B>BR Research: Let's start off from your understanding of Gwadar; its current state and potential. Compared to other large container ports in the region such as Shanghai, Singapore, Shenzhen and Dubai, how does Gwadar fare on the different metrics such as cargo handling capacity, container yard space, cargo storage capacity, and other transportation infrastructure such as air, rail, and road links?</B>

<B>Mark Goh:</B> These are very specific capital investment questions; it is difficult to compare cargo handling capacity, terminals, berths and so forth at the moment, since Gwadar is still a work in progress. For instance, if I remember correctly, the number of berths in Gwadar is in a very different order than those in Shanghai, Singapore, or Dubai, since these older ports are much bigger.

But I think Gwadar's role and potential does not lie as much as in the number of berths but in its strategic location, since it gives potential access to Central Asian states and serves as a backdoor entry to the western provinces of China. And in the case of the latter, it fits very well into China's western region development plan.

The Chinese would want to raise the overall profile and quality of life of their population, and Gwadar is an important part of their game plan. The good news for Gwadar is that it is literally starting from scratch; it therefore has the opportunity to become a state-of-the-art port.

There are four possible basic means of connectivity - the air, the port, the road, and the railways. In addition, there is the pipeline. Together, these can make Gwadar a great inter-modal transportation hub.

<B>BRR: What are the roots of this potential?</B>

<B>MG:</B> The potential is there because Gwadar is a naturally deepwater port, which means there is little need for dredging. All you have to do is to develop the hinterland, build the roads, set up the infrastructure and you are good to go. It is also important to note that Gwadar is protected from the open ocean because it is on the right side of the bay; rather than the left side of the bay, which means it is protected from strong currents while being a deepwater port at the same time.

<B>BRR: Certain quarters theorise that Chabahar is going to give competition to Gwadar. Where do you stand on that?</B>

<B>MG:</B> It depends which horse you want to favour; if you favour one horse over another, you will put your money there. As of now, it seems it is Gwadar, since it offers the shortest route, and recent developments point to the same.

There are three main considerations here: political, safety, and security. I believe Pakistan was chosen because of its unique reason and good relationship with China. And the reason why China chose Gwadar rather than the ports in Karachi is because it is easier to develop a brand new port than improve an existing port, which may already be choked.

<B>BRR: If that is indeed the case then why do you think that China did a cargo train test from east of China, via Central Asia into Tehran?</B>

<B>MG:</B> It was to make a point to the world that after so many years of talking and negotiating across several countries, China is really following through with the plan. It was also to prove that the Chinese will put their money where their mouth is. Second, as I understand, the Chinese always look out for options. Let me give you an example of how China looks at options, and that is good for modality choices.

Most of China's oil supply goes through the Straits of Malacca, which is a very busy channel. So, they have been working on three possible options for the same oil. Through the east, they have the traditional Straits of Malacca. There they have built a by-pass as well from one side of Malaysia to another, which means oil doesn't have to go through the entire Straits; it can stop half way and the rest can be transported via another transportation means across Malaysia to its eastern side where there is also a port and terminal facilities. From there, the oil is shipped off to coastal China. This helps to cut the delivery time. They have also invested in the southern part of Myanmar, from where oil will be shipped all the way to southern part of China. And then there is Gwadar to help connect with western China. In this way, China will not be dependent on oil coming from one transport route only.