'Pakistan's future plans to be linked with regional and global alliances'

Pakistan should devise future plans in accordance with changing regional and global alliances, especially considering US-India alliance which can become a game changer. This was the crux of 'AR Kemal Lecture' delivered by Dr Arshad Zaman, former Chief Economist Pakistan, on the second day of the 32nd Annual General Meeting (AGM) organised by Pakistan Society of Development Economists here on Wednesday.
Dr Zama said Sino-Russian relations have made the US anxious although at present Washington remains pre-eminent yet Beijing is emerging fast as a global leader, adding that Pakistan should adjust defence plans accordingly. He added that the country is facing four major challenges that need to be addressed. Talking about the challenges, he said they include; rebirth of nationalism in the West, war of narratives in the war for oil and Israel, emergence of Sino-Russian relationship in the form of Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and militant extremism in India. Brexit and the victory of Trump in the US elections are two examples of increasing nationalism in the West, Dr Zaman said and added the reality of the US wars has nothing to do with Islam but it is about global oil transport having choke points in Middle-Eastern countries.
Pakistan, however, should be careful in its relations with China and should not fall into a patron-client relationship, replacing the US with China. He further stressed that economy needs to be re-imagined as the security-oriented quest for protection and capture of markets. Dr Zaman argued that grand strategy needs grand strategists and bureaucracy should not be the source of it. What is needed is a body that enjoys the full confidence of both the civil and military establishment.
While stressing the need for improving relations with neighbouring countries, Dr Zaman said that Pakistan already has good relations with China but it should also work on strengthening relations with other neighbouring countries including Iran, Russia, and others.
He said, "We must defend Pakistan in a better way," making a strategy of sovereign development that combines defence, diplomacy and economic restructuring. In the war of narratives, the selection of Michael Flynn, retired lieutenant general of the US Army, as the National Security Advisor in the Trump administration reflects the mindset of the coming US government. Flynn has a stated position of using the term 'radical Islamism' in the narrative propagated by the US.
Quoting a recent study by McKinsey & Company, he stated that the gravity of economic activity is shifting to a region which is in the north of Pakistan. The creation is linked to the One-Belt-One-Road strategy of China and it aims to build a global infrastructure network. The speaker also noted that recent years have shown a rising trend for the extremist BJP and the Modi doctrine in India. India is stressing on five Ts, which are trade, tourism, talent, technology, and tradition. These so-called five Ts are forming the basis of India's relations with all countries except Pakistan.
In order to form a sovereign development strategy, Pakistan needs to take a few important initiatives. The first step should be to reframe the "Muslim national narrative." This narrative should present an ideology of Muslim tolerance, justice, and charity. Dr Zaman said that an urgent rebuttal of the organised propaganda by the West is needed that covers both civil and military aspects. This strategy should outline the lies behind the US-led wars and propagate Pakistan's vision of peace for everyone, everywhere, and not just for Pakistan and Pakistanis.
He concluded his lecture by arguing that although the scope for sovereign action by the government is limited, yet there is still space for recovery of lost sovereignty. People expect their leaders to claim this space and lead them to a life of freedom and dignity.
Another panel discussion titled "Mainstreaming Environment in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)" was chaired by Syed Abu Akif, Federal Secretary, Ministry of Climate Change, while the discussion was moderated by Mahmood Akhtar Cheema, Country Representative International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Pakistan.
The panellists talked about different aspects of CPEC, development and their relationship with the environment. Expressing his views the panelist Naseer Memon, Chief Executive Strengthening Participatory Organisation, said that development should not be at the cost of environment but at the same time it also does not mean that we should not grow. He was of the view that development is not only about who will benefit from it but it is also about who will bear the costs.
Shafqat Kakakhel, former Assistant Secretary General of the UN, said that the CPEC is skewed towards energy projects and energy projects, in turn, is skewed towards coal. Therefore, both the governments should work together to lessen the adverse impacts on climate.
Ashiq Hussain, Advisor Ev-K2-CNR, said that the projects like CPEC should not ignore the biodiversity aspects because biodiversity promotes ecotourism, which is an important industry. He stressed that biodiversity must be maintained as it is the main raw material for ecotourism.
Expressing his views on the topic, Syed Mahmood Nasir, Inspector General Forest, Ministry of Climate Change, Pakistan, said that there should also be a biological corridor and there should also be a road-cross strategy for animals. He further said that fresh water conservation should also be assured through parks, lakes and wetlands. Taking the discussion further, Rehana Siddiqui, Head Department of Environmental Economics, PIDE, said that environmental regulations are more stringent in China but in Pakistan the devolution of the Ministry of Climate Change is creating issues in the implementation of these regulations. Generating energy from coal is polluting the environment and the best feasible option is the transfer of clean technology from China. She said there is also a need to tackle the issues of future urbanisation along CPEC. Local community will lose their livelihood; therefore, the alternative sources of the livelihood should be sought, such as ecotourism.
Earlier, in a technical session, a study on the nexus between globalisation and inequality argued that there is no clear-cut relationship between globalisation and inequality in developing countries. However, effective and average tariff rates affect income inequality negatively.
Another paper talked about the potential of international trade. The presenters said that the researchers must take the institutional structures into account. According to another paper on the linkages of Pakistan's economy with the globe, the Pakistani investors are vulnerable to external financial shocks due to financial integration, whereas manufacturing and production is not affected by external factors.
Analysis in the paper on the impact of technical barriers on trade between Pakistan and other countries showed that while China, India and Sri Lanka have more non-tariff barriers (NTBs) than Pakistan, China and India's NTBs are more sophisticated. Talking about the experience of industrialisation in Pakistan, a paper argued that although Pakistan has been promoting industrialisation since independence, yet the progress has been slow due to poor governance and rent-seeking.
In a paper on freight transport networks, the presenter said that freight sector inefficiencies in Pakistan prove to be very costly. It is important to integrate road and trade networks to reduce cost and enhance efficiency. Currently, 96 per cent of the freight is transported through road and only 4 per cent of the freight is carried through the train network.