Markets

LME copper to bounce into $6,633-$6,906 range in Q4 before falling

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The range is formed by the 23.6 percent and the 14.6 percent retracements on a corrective wave cycle from the Jan. 15, 2016 low of $4,318.

The cycle lasted 604 days, while the downtrend from $7,348 developed only 81 days. In terms of the duration, the downtrend looks far from complete.

However, copper managed to stabilize around the support at $5,833, due to which, a small double-bottom formed. The pattern suggests that first part of the downtrend has completed.

The second part of the trend is driven by a wave b, which is capable of traveling into the range of $6,633-$6,906. The third part, powered by a wave c, is expected to start in the range and then extend towards $5,833 again.

The three waves from $4,318 could be alternatively counted as five waves. Based on this impulsive wave mode, the deep correction from $7,348 may have completed, and copper may not fall towards $5,833 again.

Both the corrective wave and the impulsive wave modes indicate a further gain from the current level. A break below $5,833 could cause a loss into the range of $5,033-$5,475.

 

Copyright Reuters, 2018