SINGAPORE: LME copper is expected to bounce into a range of $6,633-$6,906 per tonne this quarter before resuming its downtrend from the June 7 high of $7,348, as suggested by its wave pattern and a retracement analysis.
The range is formed by the 23.6 percent and the 14.6 percent retracements on a corrective wave cycle from the Jan. 15, 2016 low of $4,318.
The cycle lasted 604 days, while the downtrend from $7,348 developed only 81 days. In terms of the duration, the downtrend looks far from complete.
However, copper managed to stabilize around the support at $5,833, due to which, a small double-bottom formed. The pattern suggests that first part of the downtrend has completed.
The second part of the trend is driven by a wave b, which is capable of traveling into the range of $6,633-$6,906. The third part, powered by a wave c, is expected to start in the range and then extend towards $5,833 again.
The three waves from $4,318 could be alternatively counted as five waves. Based on this impulsive wave mode, the deep correction from $7,348 may have completed, and copper may not fall towards $5,833 again.
Both the corrective wave and the impulsive wave modes indicate a further gain from the current level. A break below $5,833 could cause a loss into the range of $5,033-$5,475.
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