The sanctions, imposed on Moscow by the United States earlier this month, were an unexpected game changer for the central bank as they battered the rouble and Russian stock market, spurring risks of higher inflation.

All bar two of the 23 analysts and economists polled said they expected the central bank to keep the key rate unchanged at 7.25 percent, above the "neutral" range of 6 to 7 percent the central bank has said it will lower the rate to this year.

The market consensus matches the central bank's own position. Late last week, the central bank sent a clear signal that the scope for rate cuts was limited this month by warning of higher inflation and inflationary expectations.

"We expect the CBR to keep the policy rate unchanged at 7.25 percent due to the recent sharp sell-off in the rouble, which weakened roughly 8 percent in the past two weeks," said Alexey Pogorelov, an emerging markets economist at Credit Suisse in London.

"The decision is likely to be tactical in order to assess the consequences of the rouble's weakening on inflation and households' inflation expectations," Pogorelov said .

The latest round of US sanctions against Moscow sent the rouble to its weakest level since 2016 earlier in April, raising concerns that the weaker currency would soon translate into rising prices.

Before the sanctions were imposed in early April, the central bank had been widely expected to trim its key rate further as inflation hovered near a record low of 2.4 percent in March.

After the market stabilises and the impact of the recent US sanctions become clearer, the central bank is expected to resume rate cuts and complete a cycle of monetary easing .

After keeping the rate unchanged this week, the central bank could deliver two rate cuts later this year, bringing the key rate to 6.75 percent, said Evgeny Koshelev, an economist at Rosbank.

But analysts at Goldman Sachs, who forecast a 25-basis-point cut on Friday, said the sanctions could have a more long-term impact.

"Going forward, we think the Central Bank of Russia is likely to be somewhat more cautious than we had previously thought," they said in a note. "There are risks that it will revise upwards the level of rates it considers to be neutral."

The central bank, which adheres to a week of silence ahead of its board meetings, is due to announce its rate decision at 1030 GMT on Friday. This time, no press conference with Governor Elvira Nabiullina is planned afterwards.

Copyright Reuters, 2018