Pakistan inflation reading projected in range of 9.5-10.5% for October 2026

Pakistan’s finance ministry has projected inflation reading in the range of 9.5% to 10.5% for the outgoing month of October 2026 amid elevated energy and food prices in the country in line with global trends, while the domestic economic outlook to remain promising for the ongoing fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27).

The inflation rate was recorded at 10.3% in September 2026 compared to 5.8% in September 2025.

“Headline inflation (the benchmark CPI/Consumer Price Index) is projected in the range of 9.5 to 10.5% for October 2026, with the subsequent path sensitive to international energy prices, food supplies and base effects.

“The recovery in the ongoing FY27 is expected to draw support from improving crop prospects, selected manufacturing industries, domestic construction activity and expanding external earnings,” said the ministry in its Monthly Economic Update and Outlook October 2026.

Stronger agricultural output is expected to support food processing, rural incomes and trade, while machinery imports contribute to productive capacity as investment projects are implemented. Rising services exports and remittances provide a further source of foreign exchange and household income. The stronger reserve position and broader access to external financing are creating a more supportive environment, according to the report.

“Fiscal policy remains focused on preserving stability through stronger revenue mobilisation, prudent expenditure management and targeted support for the vulnerable segment. The fiscal surplus provides a useful starting point…Continued progress on tax administration, energy efficiency, and state-owned enterprise reform is expected to support a durable expansion while containing pressures on the external account,” it said.

Pakistan’s economy continued to consolidate macroeconomic stability during the first quarter (Jul-Sep) of FY27, as “stronger external inflows helped sustain the recovery amid the ongoing Middle East crisis and higher international energy prices”.

The quarter’s most encouraging development was improved external financing, marked by successful sovereign Eurobond issuance and higher foreign direct investment. Strong growth in workers’ remittances and services exports underpinned these inflows with a durable stream of non-debt earnings, the report said. “Backed by these buffers, the rupee remained stable, reinforcing confidence in the economy’s ability to meet its external obligations and absorb external shocks.”